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Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;


– last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;



– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of 103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 – 106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);

– as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.


***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;


– as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;



– as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04 – 08 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, turned out to be right. At least, over the past week the pair regained nearly 150 points and wrapped up the week within the area of lows seen in late May – early June;
– the forecasts as to the future of GBP/USD were also vague, as well as the forecasts in respect of future relationships of Great Britain and EU: last week opinions of the analysts were split almost equally: 30% voted for the pair’s fall, 40% - for the its rise and 30% - for a sideways trend. That’s exactly what happened: first the pair slightly fell, then it went up a little bit, then it moved downwards again and eventually it appeared at the low of June 24 - 1.3270, having fulfilled expectations of all experts, including those supporting a sideways trend;
– making forecast for USD/JPY, 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 predicted that the pair would move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00, which did happen, only range-adjusted – it turned out to be even narrower than predicted - 101.40–103.40;
– as to USD/CHF pair, 70% of experts, backed by the majority of indicators, expected the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. The pair did rallied fairly quickly to the predetermined level, where it had been stalling during the midweek, following which it went down to the same values it had started the week from – to the area of 0.9730.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– the effects of Brexit are likely to influence the condition of markets for a very long time. And uncertainty in respect of the way the Foggy Albion will be separated from the EU (and whether it will ever be separated) causes uncertainty in forecasts of analysts. As to the acting of EUR/USD for the upcoming week, 45% of analysts insist on the pair’s rise, 45% - on its fall, and the remaining 10% reached a compromise voting for a sideways trend. Readings of the indicators show the same variety of opinions, but the graphical analysis on Н4 draws a well-defined sideways channel within1.1035–1.1180. With this, you should consider that NFP data – the key figure of economic health of the USA - will be released on Friday, July 08, which usually cause spikes in exchange rate of US dollar. Unlike the fuzzy week forecast, the medium-terms forecasts provide a much clearer picture: over 80% of analysts reckon that in somewhere about two months the pair will go down first to the level of 1.0800, and then further – to the area of 1.0500–1.0600;
– as to GBP/USD, here we can see a unique situation – 100% of experts, fully backed by the technical analysis, predict a sideways trend, which is of course due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The level of 1.3300 is referred to as the pivot point, 1.3070 – as the lower boundary of the channel, 1.3550 – as the upper boundary. As to the forecast until the end of the month, here more than 55% of experts tend to believe that the pair will fall below the level of 1.3000;
– as to the future of USD/JPY, almost 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the zone of 100.00–101.00. With this the area of 103.50 is indicated as the main resistance level. An alternative point of view, supported by the remaining experts and the graphical analysis on D1, suggests a possible rise of the pair to the level of 106.30. Therewith, you should consider that currently USD/JPY is at the pivot point level of the first half of 2014, and it may move alongside this line for some time;
– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, it’s highly likely that the pair will continue fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9800, and with this it will pursue bullish attempts to return to the landmark level of 1.0000.
Roman Butko, NordFX

June 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

We continue posting ratings of MQL5 trading signals, which you can easily subscribe to using the tab ‘Signals’ at the bottom of terminals МТ4 and МТ5. As a reminder, this service is a very effective substitute of your own trading - manually or with the help of the advisors. The main difficulty here is choosing those strategies worth to be subscribed to. Currently around five thousand strategies are presented on ‘the display window’, and selecting the ones, resulting in a sustainable profit, rather than in a one-time deposit loss, is quite challenging.

As usual, John Gordon – expert in investment security and leading analyst at broker company NordFX, analyzing mistakes, often made by investors, subscribing to any given signal, is acting as our consultant in respect of this service.

Following the results of June preferences of the subscribers/investors are as follows:
I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 75%, 430 subscribers),
II. Arrow (growth 1461%, 204 subscribers),
III. Stable Forex Profit (growth 10562%, 199 subscribers),
IV. Small to BIG Money (growth 341%, 179 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (growth 1748%, 119 subscribers),
VI. Lemar Investment Group (growth 742%, 106 subscribers),
VII. Setka Real2 (growth 1013%, 104 subscribers),
VIII. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 26%, 75 subscribers),
IX. A1 Daily Profit (growth 1152%, 64 subscribers),
X. Y2016 (growth 1491%, 63 subscribers).

“For starters”, offers John Gordon, “let’s give some general statistics. So, as compared to the previous month, Top 10 is renewed by 60%. The previous providers left in the top list are:
– MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 –still ranks No. I;
¬– Lemar Investment Group – the signal moved ahead one step – from VII to VI place;
– Small to BIG Money – conversely, dropped one place and currently holds IV position;
– and signal Q2FX, which switched from VIII place to V.

As to the other signals, which were among previous May TOP-10, the situation is as follows:
– Fusion Project moved down from the sixth to the thirty-third place in the rating of popularity among the subscribers;
¬– CB06143 changed its name to TRIPLEX 003 TYPE AA, and giving up its positions, currently holds the twenty-fourth place instead of the tenth;
– Green Line Signals, was not even in TOP-10, but in TOP-3 during several months, currently it didn’t just drop out of the leaders’ team, but lost almost all its subscribers, showing a drawdown of 97% from the deposit;
– Pound Aussie Real appeared on the 36th place versus the previous 2nd;
– Asia Balance – ranks No.37 (previously – No.9);
– signal MAXI showed the greatest drop in the rating, it moved down from the 6th place to the 57th.”

“It should be noted that our forecasts as to the reliability of a given signal”, continues analyst of NordFX, “mostly pan out. And those signals, positively recommended by us, usually can easily stand and tick along even the sharpest fluctuations of cross rates, even the ones seen during Brexit. However, unfortunately, quite often investors choose absolutely other signals, being guided only by the profit figures and paying no attention to our calls for being cautious, which leads to quite poor results. For an example, I'd like to cite what we told about Green Line Signals three months ago, in March:

“Consider”, I wrote previously, “the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%. Time will tell whether I’m right or wrong urging to be extremely cautious with this signal.”
“Time proved I was right, and instead of previous growth of 700% June figures showed loss of 65% with the maximum drawdown of 96%!”

"Generally, while selecting signals for subscription,” John Gordon says, "I urge to analyze other signals of the same author as well. We may take signal Pound Aussie, being among TOP-10 in May, as an example. Apart from this signal, its author offers to subscribe to two more signals: Mix Demo and London Hawk. Needless to say, that the first signal, operating on a demo account, shows a very impressive deposit growth – 1200% in little over a year. But a drawdown is also impressive – 81%, which is a cause for serious concerns. And if the account, which you use for a subscription, also includes a bonus from your broker, with such a drawdown it almost 100% likely to be zeroed.

The second signal – London Hawk – is operating on the real account, it is only 7 weeks old, it shows growth of 24%, but herewith the maximum drawdown has already tested the mark above 53%. The obvious conclusions spring to mind. And more than 80% of investors have already come to such conclusions, having cancelled the subscription to Pound Aussie Real.

Or, for example, another signal which just amazes with its profitability – Panen Profit, plus 9113% in just under a year! And the maximum drawdown for such a growth is quite acceptable – 50% from the deposit. It's an excellent result but for several ‘buts’.
The first one is what I call "reverse martingale" – trade tactics where first the author of a signal gains ‘pace’ of the deposit with a high risk, and then sharply slows down. With such a scheme, only those investors signed to the signal at the very beginning of its lifespan get the main profit. And here example of Panen Profit is very illustrative: September of 2015 – plus 290%, October – plus 238%, November – 8%, and further from 9 to 27% per month.
As a whole and with such figures the subscription can turn out to be quite profitable, but there is the second ‘but’, which is that the drawdown of 50% appeared not when the growth was approaching to 300%, but during the months with a rather gradual increase of the deposit of 20–25%.

Of course, a degree of admissible risk is determined by the investor himself and nobody else. I'm just trying to help with accurate assessment of a balance between this risk and profitability.
Let's assume that you had been signed to Panen Profit since 6/1/2016. For this month the deposit growth made around 25%, and the drawdown – 50%. Subscription cost – 30 USD/per month. So that you could leave in a month with zero result, your initial deposit should make 120 USD. The risk of loss makes 50% from 120 USD, that is 60 dollars, plus 30 dollars paid for the subscription, total 90 USD. But if your deposit makes, let's say, 1200 USD instead of 120, it will be a different and more attractive scenario," - John Gordon from NordFX sums up. "Specifics and a great advantage of the service 'Signals' is in the fixed cost of subscription, regardless of the size of the investor's deposit. Thus, with deposit growing higher, not only absolute, monetary profit is increasing, but also relative profit, expressed as percentage from the initial capital, the risk is, correspondingly, decreasing, which is good news for any investor".

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivot point of 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795, whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;

– predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivot point of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 – 22 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled – the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down, as a result of which the level of 1.1050 should act as the resistance zone. However, as the last week showed, it continued to act as the upper boundary of the support area of 1.1025–1.1050, and all attempts to break through it failed. Eventually the pair has been moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160 for almost three weeks, which is, obviously, due to the uncertainty around effects of Brexit on Europe;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, tended to believe that the pair would soar, having rebound from the bottom in the area of 1.2860, where it would reach the resistance of 1.3370 and briefly pause within the range of 1.3100–1.3370. That is just what happened. Then on Thursday under the onslaught of bulls, the pair could go further upwards and reached the level of 1.3480, but by Friday night their pressure weakened and the pair returned into the predetermined range, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3180;

– and acting of USD/JPY must have come as a big surprise to analysts. The pair was expected to follow the scenario of spring/summer 2014 and move within the ranges, predetermined by the support levels of 100.20 and 99.00 and resistance levels of 102.30 and 103.50. However, having bounced off the support of 100.20, the pair made such a mighty heave, that it literally flew over nearly 600 points, got to the level of 106.320 and at once regained everything it had lost during announcement of Brexit results;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair can be considered 100% fulfilled. As it was expected, the pair had been fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9850. In attempts to return to the zone of 1.0000, it could reach the high of 0.9893, and afterwards it again returned to the pivot point and ended the week at the level of 0.9820.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, it’s clear that in this case all indicators point to south. However the majority of experts reckon that the pair will continue moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160. ECB rate decision and speech of Mario Draghi on Thursday can make some adjustments, and thus a certain rise of the pair is possible. As to the graphical analysis, it points out that the pair, following the example of USD/JPY, may well surge upwards, paring losses it had incurred during the referendum in the Foggy Albion. In this case 1.1220, 1.1290 and 1.1410 are deemed as the resistance levels. An alternative scenario, backed by only 25% of analysts for now, suggests that the pair would go down to the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, according to both opinions of analysts and technical analysis, the bearish trend still gets a firm hold of the market. However, in terms of retracement, during the upcoming week the pair has potential to rise to the resistance of 1.3470 (and according to the graphical analysis on H4 even higher – up to 1.3800), following which it will again plunge – first to the support of 1.3100, and then to its historic lows in the area of 1.2800;

– opinions of the analysts about the future of USD/JPY may be narrowed down to the point, that last week’s rebound upwards is only a retracement, and that bulls’ strength is almost gone. Eventually, the pair is expected to change over to the sideways movement within 104.50–106.50 (the next resistance will be at 107.80) during the next week. Graphical analysis and indicators agree to this scenario, which both the ones on Н4 and on D1 took a neutral position. Medium-term forecast suggests that the descending trend, started as early as last December, should continue and the pair would retest the level of 99.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, according to virtually all analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4 and 80% of indicators, the pair will remain bullish and continue moving in an ascending trend. The nearest target will be at 0.9950, then at 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9800, and if will be broken through – 0.9680.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

British Pound – Nosedive After Brexit

After Brexit every second Brit predicts the end to the United Kingdom within the next 10 years. These are the shocking data of survey conducted by BBC. It is clear, that such turmoil cannot but effect the future of the British pound as well – one of the major currencies being traded on the Forex market now.

GBP/USD pair steadily holds the third place in world hierarchy of currencies in respect of the liquidity level. The volume of transactions thereon before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum made about 12% of all transactions on Forex, and one of the key factors determining popularity of this pair among traders is its high volatility.
Statistics for the recent years demonstrated extremely high sensitivity of GBP to fundamental factors including not only data on the state of British economy and decisions of the Bank of England, but also similar data from Europe and the USA. Significant rate fluctuations of the British pound constantly led to statements of European officials and their colleagues overseas.
And it all occurred prior to Brexit! What will happen to the ‘British’ in the conditions of a real force majeure?

“It is logical to assume,” the leading analyst of NordFX broker company, John Gordon says, “that until the authorities of Great Britain officially announce the beginning of procedure of exit from the EU and launch a specific implementation of this decision, the pound will try to circle the wagons and even make an effort to somewhat improve its positions. But as soon as the distance between Europe and the United Kingdom will really begin to increase, the pound will see truly 'rainy days'. Problems with the budget and serious current account deficit are evident. Under such circumstances it will be very difficult to slow down outflow of investment capital and at least to neutralize bull sentiment in the foreign exchange market.”

On the flip side, the specialist and Chief European Economist of the Bank of England, Johnathan Loynes, reckons that fall of exchange rate of the pound, conversely, can serve well to national economy. “The pound dropped more than by 11% against the currency basket”, J. Loynes stated, “and it is perceived as something negative. However the exchange rate of the pound prior to Brexit had been too high and hadn’t contributed to reduction of trade deficit of the country, making British export non-competitively expensive”. “Decline in the exchange rate of the pound can kick serious start to export of Great Britain again”, he comforted the British industrialists in his recent report.

These comments closely echo the opinion of the winner of the Wolfson prize, economist Roger Bootle, who – even before the referendum! – stated that if British citizens voted for exit from the EU and the pound sharply depreciated, in the long term it would have a positive effect – would help to balance trade and bridge the trade balance deficit by means of increase in export of Great Britain and reduction of the domestic demand for import.

As for the analysts of Credit Suisse Fixed Research, they, perhaps, do not share the optimism of their colleagues from the Bank of England and they announced a major revision of the forecasts for the major currency pairs.
The prevailing revision is that the forecast for GBP/USD decreased from 1.58 to 1.22. As for the three-months forecast for EUR/USD, according to Shahab Jalinoos from Credit Suisse, it is cut to 1.05. “Now, when the negative scenario became a reality,” the analyst says, “we believe that the market will continuously strive to sell this pair.”

The specialists of the Dutch financial conglomerate ING predict a bit deeper decline for GBP/USD. According to their forecasts, the pair can soon go down to 1.10-1.20. With this, in a longer term the analytics of ING paint a bleaker picture connected with a possible holding of the second Scottish independence referendum and loss of the status of the reserve currency by the pound. “It is clear that lack of clarity (in respect of the future of Great Britain), Head of FX Strategy at ING in London, Chris Turner, says, – will push GBP towards extreme devaluation.

As for investment bank JPMorgan, summarizing the results of Brexit, it also updated the forecasts, considering that as early as in the third quarter of 2016 GBP/USD will fall below the level of 1.29, and EUR/GBP will reach the mark of 0.8760.

“Even before Brexit”, – says John Gordon from NordFX, “analysts indicated the level of 1.30 against the US dollar as the critical level.
Therewith it is believed that if the pair is consolidated below it, then the pound might be expected to go down further to 1.15, and then even further down – down to parity with American currency. The pair had already tested the level of 1.28, the future, however, largely depends on those steps which will be taken by the authorities of Great Britain.”

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit. With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level;

– GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit;

– the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound, seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00;

– USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternative viewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend;

– Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on all main time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario;

- opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivot point at 0.9880, the first support will be at 0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 – 05 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements, due to be released on Wednesday, were supposed to change this trend. And that was the case: the miracle didn’t happen, to the utter disappointment of investors, the interest rate was kept on hold at 0.5%, and thus the greenback fell against euro by around 200 points;

– GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and for the second consecutive week the pair had been moving within the range of 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200. Bearish sentiment was expected to predominate at the market, but news from the USA weighed in on here, whereby the pair ticked up a little bit and transited from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper one;

– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the retracement was over, and, having broken the support of 105.50, the pair would go south to the next support in the area of 103.50. But a reservation, declaring that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision could make certain adjustments, was also made here. And as it turned out to be higher as it was expected (–0.1% versus expected –0.2%), yen reinforced its positions against the US dollar even more, reaching the level of 102.00 by the end of the week;

– USD/CHF – as it was expected, till the mid-week the pair kept bullish bias and went up to the mark of 0.9950. And then, as often happens during coming out of headline news, mirrored the acting of EUR/USD, and, having broken through the support levels of 0.9840 and 0.9800, it went down, wrapping up the week at 0.9700 - the area of the third support, indicated by experts.


***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, opinions of experts were split equally. 50% of them, backed by the graphical analysis on H1 as well as by 90% of indicators on H4 and on D1, tend to believe that the pair will continue rising and try to consolidate in the area of 1.1250–1.1300. As for the second half of experts, in their opinion the pair is currently keeping within the upper boundary of the range of 1.0955–1.1190, having bounced off which it should start going south. With this it should be taken into account that on August 5, 2016 NFP data – the key indicator of economic health of the USA - will be released, and they usually result in plummeting of exchange rate of buck. According to some forecasts NFP for this month can drop from 287k to 175k;

– Brexit picture is still mixed, that’s why 75% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis and indicators on D1, believe that GBP/USD will continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335 with the pivot point of 1.3200. And only 15% of analysts do not rule out the possibility that it will try to retest July lows in the area of 1.2800 again. NFP data as well as ECB meeting on Wednesday and a series of headline news from the Bank of England, due to be released on Thursday, August 04, can influence formation of a new trend;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, 30% of analysts in line with 100% of indicators reckon that the pair will try to go down to the level of 100.00. Almost 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 do not agree with this version. In their opinion the level of 101.50 will become a strong support to the pair, and backing on it, the pair will make attempts to reach the resistance of 103.60, and if it will be broken through – even get to 106.50. And, finally, the third scenario is offered by remaining 30% of analysts, voting for a sideways trend alongside the pivot point of 102.50;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, here experts along with the graphical analysis on H4 predict that the pair will move in a sideways channel of 0.9660–0.9720 for a while, and afterwards it will go down to the support of 0.9500. Such a scenario will be more likely if the forecast for change in NFP will turn out to be correct.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

OLYMPIC DEMOCUP

Competition Dedicated to the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro
Participate virtually, Earn really!
OLYMPIC DEMOCUP is a unique competition on demo accounts with real prizes, with 3 sets of awards in team and individual scorings.

The total prize fund is $ 23100!

Hurry up to take part, the registration ends soon!
Learn more at the website http://olympic.nordfx.com/

Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 – 12 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks – to the area of 1.1090;

– GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. That’s why 75% of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335. This is exactly what happened – neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range – at 1.3060;

– giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30% of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40% of experts believed that it won’t be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30% voted for its sideways movement. In fact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00;

– USD/CHF – as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.9660–0.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last week’s low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.0950–1.1000. 85% of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend – up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220;

– 70% of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.3050–1.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week we’ll see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100% of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on Н4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50–104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 agree with this. The rest 50% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.9735–0.9900, than a support.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

July 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

The vast majority of the traders using MT4 terminals are certainly familiar with an opportunity of automatic trading by means of the 'Signals' service integrated into this platform. The main difficulty while subscribing is a selection of the most appropriate signals in terms of combination of risk and profitability.
Unfortunately, the analysis shows that many traders/investors pay attention only to the last of all parameters, neglecting possible risks, and it results in negative impact on their deposits.
In order to help traders avoid these mistakes, monthly, for more than two years, the leading specialist of NordFX broker company, John Gordon, analyzes the choice of subscribers, making recommendations on how to get the maximum profit in case at minimal risks.

As of the end of July TOP-10 most popular signals among subscribers is as follows:
I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 86%, 784 subscribers),
II. Stable Forex Profit (growth 16293%, 257 subscribers),
III. Lemar Analytics ECN (growth 131%, 197 subscribers),
IV. Revolution (growth 3987%, 143 subscribers),
V. Arrow (growth 1853%, 112 subscribers),
VI. F Cracker (growth 201%, 102 subscribers),
VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 942%, 101 subscribers),
VIII. Q2FX 1 (growth 2189%, 119 subscribers),
IX. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 29%, 125 subscribers),
X. Setka Real2 (growth 1043%, 69 subscribers).

"The July list of top signals”, begins the overview J. Gordon, "was updated, as compared to June Top, by only 30%, the key positions were taken by old players, on which I will focus today."

“MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 signal has been taking the Ist place for the third consecutive month. With this, I'd like to pay your attention, that it has been among Top 3 signals during the entire 2016: January – the second place, February, March, April – the third place, and during the last three months – it proved to be an absolute leader with 784 subscribers, which have entrusted management of around one million dollars to the author of this signal management. Even though, its profitability seems to be more, than modest. Where others show a growth of hundreds and thousands of percents, it showed a growth of only 27% in last seven months
So why is it so popular? I guess, there are three reasons:
- the first one – the life span of the signal, 123 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;
- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't not exceed 19% during these two and a half years, and in 2016 the maximum drawdown didn't exceed 3%.
- and, finally, the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free, that is important for investors with small deposits.

The second place in the rating is taken by Stable Forex Profit signal, it considerably differs from the first one. Suffice to say, that over seven months of this year the deposit growth made 780%. The signal is 83 weeks old, and that is a significant life span. However, on July 8, when the USA unemployment data were released, his author let himself quite a risky trading, and therefore his depositing made 72%. The maximum drawdown on this signal makes 55%, which is rather dangerous for those investors who used large bonuses on the deposit from their brokers.”

“Let me speak aside", the leading analyst of NordFX continues. "Good thing about the 'Signals' service, developed by the MetaQuotes Software Corp., is that it provides investors the data of online monitoring on more than 50 parameters, which allows evaluating a given signal fully and properly. Furthermore, the users of this service can carry on a direct correspondence with developers of signals and rate them.
So, for example, you can read how the subscribers to the signal Stable Forex Profit express their displeasure to its author (which, by the way, promised to change ‘the way of trading to a more cautious, aiming to keep DD within 10-20%’) at the most critical moments of trade.
In my opinion, such an on-line chat with subscribers and their reaction are rather useful addition to the parameters of the technical analysis and give additional information for evaluation of signal quality. So, in respect of the number of signals, for instance, the subscribers complain about slippage, as a result of which their results, when copying, appear to be significantly lower, than the results of the author of the signal. It is very important information, worth paying attention to, especially in case of pips strategies.

And, finally, one more signal which ranks among the popularity TOP among subscribers for the fifth month in a row is Q2FX_1 – impressive profit of 2189% with an admissible maximum drawdown of 32%. A certain wariness here causes the fact that in June-July the drawdown chart showed a significant increase, which is, to my mind, connected with desire of the author of the signal to improve his indicators, which were doubled in comparison with April-May ones. And, as we know, the higher the profit, the higher the risks.”

"It'd be quite convenient,” John Gordon adds, "if developers of the 'Signals' service introduced one more chart into a monitoring complex – changes of the number of subscribers. In my opinion, it would really help insufficiently qualified investors understand whether it is worth being signed to a given signal or not.
For example, let us consider the above-mentioned MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842: January – 246 subscribers, February – 250, March – 225, April – 336, May – 447, June – 430, July – 784. In six months the number of subscribers tripled, suggesting that you should not expect unpleasant surprises from this signal.
Or another signal, which riskiness we discussed in the previous reviews a lot, – Green Line Signals: February – 140 subscribers and a growth of 510%, March – 296, April – 478, May – 125. We should admit that it is a quite disturbing signal! And, finally, June – the nullified deposit and zero subscribers."
"I repeatedly warned", the leading analyst of NordFX sums up the overview, "that you should be cautious while subscribing to signals which are only several months old. Therefore, selecting this or that signal, I urge to use MetaQuotes service which allows filtering them out not only by the profit size, but also by those parameters, which we paid much attention to today, – on the maximum drawdown and the number of subscribers."

Generalized Forex Forecast for 15 – 19 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through – it would go up to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. The pair fully fulfilled the plan: on Tuesday it reached the level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the mark of 1.1170, having turned it into the pivot point, and on Friday it took the high of 1.1220 on news from the USA. After this uprise the pair rushed back, failing to drive out of the range of the three-month descending channel;

– as a reminder, speaking of GBP/USD, 100% of experts expressed the view, that during August the pair would retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure. The pair seemed to hear that forecast, and during the whole week it was aggressively striving to go down, however, so far it could drop only to the mark of 1.2900;

– as to the last week’s acting of USD/JPY, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts pointed down – to the area of 98.90–100.00, the technical analysis reckoned that before going down the pair would first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel within 103.50–104.00. Eventually, moving alongside the sideways channel, the pair failed to reach either mark, keeping within 100.96–102.65;

– USD/CHF – here the half of experts believed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The rest 50% of analysts reckoned that the pair would fail to do so, and that it would move within 0.9735–0.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, it may be concluded that both turned out to be right: during the first two days the pair tried hard to consolidate above the level of 0.9800, and afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged, wrapping up the week in the area of 0.9750.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, most experts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. The area of 1.1230 is expected to act the resistance, and if it is broken through, the pair can make attempts to heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. 80% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario. As for the longer-term outlook, near 100% of experts are sure that the three-month descending trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600;

– it’s clear, that speaking of the future of GBP/USD, 100% of indicators point to the south. As to the experts and the graphical analysis, they believe that in the short term the pair will fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250. It should be specified that around 70% of experts are sure that in the medium term the pair will go south again under the bears’ pressure, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and if it is broken through, it will go further down – to the mark of 1.2500;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts and the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel within 100.70–102.50, after which it will upswing to the area of 103.00-104.00. And only 20% of analysts believe that there is still a chance that the pair will go down to the mark of 100.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. And this week the experts believe that first the pair will strive for reaching this high, and then it will consolidate above it – at the area of 0.9800–0.9900. Agreeing with this scenario, the graphical analysis specifies that first the pair will make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765 and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.9700–0.9730, will surge northwards.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 – 26 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up – to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. Considering the backlash, common to the levels of support/resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered as panned out: having bounced off the level of 1.1153, as early as Tuesday the pair broke through the first resistance and consolidated above it. By Thursday it had approached the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then it returned to the area, specified by experts, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.1325;

– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as fulfilled, moreover – 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts and the graphical analysis believed that in the short term the pair would fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250, which virtually happened: the last week’s low - 1.2865, high 1.3185;

– for a couple of weeks there were debates about whether USD/JPY could reach the area of 98.90–100.00 or not. First, most analysts agreed with this scenario, and then their number diminished progressively. And when there were only 20% of experts left, the pair hardly passed the support of 100.86, and went one level down, and, finally, reached the landmark level of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point;

– USD/CHF – the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, reckoning that before reaching the level of 0.9800 the pair would make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765, after which it would rebound to the support of 0.9700–0.9730. But even this forecast can be deemed as partially fulfilled. Indeed, on Monday within hours the pair tried to break through the area of 0.9765. Actually it failed and went down. But therewith the bears appeared to be so strong, that they could easily jump over the timid resistance of the opponent, and, instead of expected 50 points, the fall made around 200 points.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, around 60% of experts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4, believe that, backing on the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425, after which it will bounce downwards to the area of 1.1200–1.1230. Two options are indicated as alternative viewpoints: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one – a descending trend from earlier in the week with the same target of 1.1200;

– according to both most experts and the graphical analysis as well as indicators on Н4 and D1, the main forecast for GBP/USD for the near future is continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Currently the pair is keeping within the central line of this horizontal channel – at 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, its movement northwards, which started last week, will continue. With smooth consolidation, the nearest target for this pair is the resistance of 1.3280, and if it is broken through - 1.3350. The third resistance will be at 1.3500. Alternative viewpoint implies rebounding of the pair from the central line to the lower boundary of the specified channel - 1.2850;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65% on Н1 vote for Buy, 70% on Н4 - for Sell and 30% for Buy, and 100% on D1 vote for Sell. There is also no consensus among the experts – 50% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall, and 20% - for its sideways movement alongside the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is indicated as the main support here. The only one, who offers more or less agreed forecast, is the graphical analysis on Н4 и D1 – both imply the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go 300 point lower – to the mark of 099.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 80% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on Н4, reckon that last week the pair reached its local bottom at 0.9535, after which for a while it will be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in an uptrend, the first resistance will be at 0.9710, the next - at 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same - 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Olympic DemoCup from NordFX – Games, Which Traders Make Money on

In parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Forex broker NordFX held its own "Olympic Games".

And so, the Olympic flame went out. For some this sport event became the way to the medal stand, for others – bitterness of defeat.
The rush of winning is in human nature, and this refers not only to wrestlers or track and field athletes, but also... to traders. Each of us wants to prove to the whole world, that he is faster, stronger, and more successful than the others. Sportsmen demonstrate it during the Olympic Games and the championships, as for the traders, DemoCup contest, which has been held for six years now by Forex broker NordFX, gives them such opportunity.

Only virtual demo accounts participate in this two-week contest, which takes place in the middle of each month. However, the prizes awarded to the winners are quite real – monthly prize drawing makes $3500, $3000 from which are divided among 10 winners, and 10 contestants obtain consolation prizes of $50.

In total, since March, 2010, about 300.000 dollars were awarded! Even though anyone can take part in this contest absolutely for free.


The thing, which juices up this contest, is that traders from almost 100 countries take part in it, namely, from: China and Russia, Ukraine and India, Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka, Romania, Iran, Thailand, Poland, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Belarus, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Estonia, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Bulgaria, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the USA, Morocco and Syria, Israel and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Great Britain, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Tajikistan, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Brazil, Libya, Armenia, Angola, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Ghana, Slovakia, Uruguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Yemen, Argentina, Latvia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Philippines, Cuba, Kenya, the Republic of South Africa, Taiwan, Peru, Morocco, Venezuela, Tunisia, Guatemala, Italy, Georgia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Portugal, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Swaziland and even from Saint Helena...

"The geography of the contestants is so broad, that DemoCup can be easily called a world-wide contest", the leading analyst of NordFX and the jury member John Gordon says. "And so we thought why not to hold our own Olympics for the traders in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. So said - so done: we established the organizing committee, developed special rules and allocated a very plum prize fund of $23100 for the winners.

Unlike standard, regular DemoCup, in the Olympic DemoCup we drew three sets – total 89 – of awards in team and individual scorings. The contests were held from August 8 to August 19, and during all these ten days the heat of the struggle did not subside for even a minute, the traders looked for the slightest opportunity to increase individual and team deposits.
And if in the medal ranking at the Olympic Games in Rio the Russian team took only the 4th place, here it could step on the top of victory podium. In a very short time twenty best traders from the Russian team could increase their deposit by 22.5 times – from two hundred thousand to almost four and a half million virtual dollars! Such that they received yet 10000 real dollars – $500 for each member of the "gold" twenty.


The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000, and the representatives of China, having overtaken Russian sportsmen in Rio, took only the third place in the Olympic DemoCup, having received $2500 as a prize. As for the host country of the Olympic Games – Brazil, it took the fourth place. One more South American country – Venezuela - was in Top 5.
As for individual scores, Russian trader, who increased the deposit from 10.000 to 1.670.000 dollars, that is by 167 times, became the absolute winner here! Having won in all three nominations, he obtained $2000 as an award.
The organizers didn't forget about consolation prizes of $50 each, which got representatives of Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Belarus, Indonesia, Mexico and India.

"I'd like to emphasize", J. Gordon says, "that contests on demo accounts require traders to have not less, and sometimes even more self-control. If, trading on the real account, the trader is constantly struggling with a fear to lose his deposit, he has to overcome euphoria from the first successes and the seeming impunity – because the money is not real. Of course, a loss won’t ruin him, but he won't become a winner either. In DemoCup it is very easy to cross that fine line between a justified risk and mindless adventurism."


"In conclusion", the jury member sums up, "I'd like to congratulate our winners and invite all traders to take part in the next stages DemoCup, which, as a reminder, unlike the Olympic Games, are held every month. The annual prize fund makes $42000, and you can study the rules of the contest on NordFX website, they are simple. I'm sure, that you will appreciate advantageous terms and high quality of the services, which NordFX offers to each client. And the number of our clients, – John Gordon smiles, – already makes about 1.500.000 – a big close-knit family Olympic family!”

Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August – 02 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled:

– all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, “supported” by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016;

– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1, insisting on the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94;

– as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on Н4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend. It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pair’s movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255К to 164К–188К;

– trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 – as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both Н4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80% of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.2500–1.2800;

– giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.9840–0.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00–107.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 100% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500, had started;

– with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30;

– the assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4, predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;

– clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north. As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data from Switzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate – on Friday.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 – 16 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;

– as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;

– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50, and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;

– if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;

– giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;

– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;

– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;

– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;

– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards;

– as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960;

– as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25;

– Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears;

– the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow.

– as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00;

– talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 – 07 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts voted for the pair’s rise up to the resistance of 1.1260–1.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40% of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from – at the level of 1.1240;

– currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result – in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points;

– the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33;

– giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100%. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640, and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90%) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80%) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151К to 170К–176К, EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70% of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000;

– certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65% of experts, backed by the absolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline – down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060;

– as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally – about half of them vote for the pair’s rise, and the same number – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80–101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pair’s fluctuations to 99.00–104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week;

– as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.9700–0.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support – in the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, over 75% of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

September 2016: Pitfalls of Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

It is always interesting to watch how people make their choice and then understand why it happened. What is meant here is not future USA presidential elections, but the choice of the investors, subscribing to trading signals in the same-name service in MT4 platform. After all, people are not just subscribing, they virtually trust their, often considerable, funds to a given trader - provider of the signals.
It is well-known that anything money-related requires special attention. Naturally, this also applies to automatic copying of trades of other traders. Technically, it is possible just to choose the provider of the signals showing the maximum profit and copy his trading. But is it always the best option? As usual, the leading analyst of NordFX broker company John Gordon expresses his opinion on the subject. And, as often happens, he is not inclined to look at the choice of the subscribers only through rose-coloured glasses.

Following the results of September 2016, Top 10 of the most popular signals among the subscribers is as follows:

I. CALM (growth 2045%, 498 subscribers),
II. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 91%, 468 subscribers),
III. Seven Majors Renko Scalper (growth 301%, 336 subscribers),
IV. Revolution (growth 4138%, 317 subscribers),
V. New Stable Forex Profit (growth 44%, 261 subscribers),
VI. Small to BIG Money (growth 468%, 143 subscribers),
VII. WaterFragance (growth 1544%, 122 subscribers),
VIII. F Cracker (growth 281%, 98 subscribers),
IX. WaterFragance2 (growth 38%, 91 subscribers),
X. SURVIVOR (growth 2060%, 84 subscribers).

“If you don't mind”, J. Gordon peers at the monitor of his computer, “I will begin the analysis with the signal called CALM – the newbie of our TOP rating, which entered the TOP 10 for the first time. I tell you straight away that it took the first place not only among the subscribers, but also in the rating created by MetaQuotes company. And this is by no means unimportant, as two of these ratings very often don't match among themselves.

So, why do more than fifteen hundred investors have such a deep fascination for that signal, so that they entrusted to it $2.200.000 for management?
I guess, I'll be right in assuming, that its author has solid history as PAMM-manager. This is evident from his another signal – HOZYIN, which is accompanied by numerous deposits and withdrawal of funds.
As for CALM, this signal is a little more than one year old, and during the first 12 months it showed the growth of about 25% per month. With this, the drawdown repeatedly appeared in the area of 40% from the deposit, after which the author of the signal decided to lower the risks at least to 30%. But, as often happens, together with the risk the profitability also fell. According to the forecasts of the author, it will make from 10% to 15% per month now, and it's possible that with such parameters the signal will leave TOP 10 investors' preferences. But so far it makes an impression of a quite stable and profitable signal.”

“Here I want to pay attention to one specific moment connected with online monitoring on the website MQL5.com," J. Gordon continues. “Among the main and most marked parameters ‘The maximum drawdown’ is specified here. This parameter, on the one hand, is rather terrifying for the investors, but on the other hand – it is not reasonably objective. The paradox is that eventually it can only increase, but not decrease in any way.
Let's try to look into the matter of this nuance by the example of the same CALM signal.
When it started in life its author applied a rather risky strategy, and the maximum drawdown on equity at that time made 44%. If he began to risk even more, and the drawdown would increase, let's say, up to 60%, then it would be fixed in the corresponding column. However, our author reduced the risks, and value of his maximum drawdown fell to 30%. So what? He can trade another five, ten, twenty years, reducing the drawdown from 44% to 30%, 10%, to zero! But in this column from here to eternity those 44%, which were formed at the time of ‘wild youth’ of this signal, will be specified.
Does that sound fair?
In my opinion, such lifelong 'black spot' (do you remember the novel “Treasure island” by Stevenson?) isn't not quite fair. And the only option to get rid of this 'curse' is to register a new signal. But then the whole months-long or long-term work of the provider will be ruined, and this new signal will be at the very bottom of the rating, which no potential subscriber and investor will ever get to.
In my opinion, at least one more parameter – the average value of the drawdown for the whole life span of the signal - could be set forth near the maximum drawdown. Until this happens, I urge you to look attentively at the chart of the drawdown, which is included in monitoring of each signal. And before subscribing, compare dynamics of this chart to the data on profitability of the signal. This will give a true and fair view.

Data on profitability is generally very important and evident parameter which allows picturing what to expect from a subscription. Let's take, for example, Revolution signal – the IV place in this rating. The growth in a year and a half makes more than 4000% with the maximum drawdown of 8% – one would wonder what more could it be asked for? But if we look at the results of last months, it turns out that everything is not in the way that it wished to be. Indeed, last May 2015, the profit made 150%, and currently, in recent months, the picture has been absolutely different: April – 1.66%, May – 0, June – 1.53%, July – 6.79%, August – 3.31%, September (at the time of this article writing) – 0.62% at all! What thousands of percents are there to talk about? The annual forecast of MQL5.com – is just over 16% per year. It is up to you, dear readers, to decide whether it is worth subscribing to such signal.”

“And one more piece of advice", J. Gordon continues, “choose for subscription only those signals which can be analyzable on rather long time period – at least about a year. Otherwise, in a number of cases, you can discover unpleasant surprises. I don't want to suspect anybody of anything, but sometimes the results on the growth chart before the thin vertical gray line and after it differ significantly.
To clarify, this line means the beginning of online monitoring on the part of MQL5.com.
So, for example, in August one more signal, which in a month with the drawdown of less than 35% gained over 2800% of profit, approached TOP 10. Like I said: more than 2800% in 31 days! It's incredible! But it had been prior to the beginning of the independent online monitoring. And afterward – in September – it showed 37% of profit and drawdown of almost 60%. (That very drawdown which with a bonus of 100% most often leads to closing of accounts). I don't know how the author of this signal can explain such a decline in profit by 75 times. But I know that in September he instantly registered two new signals which showed the growth of... 6000% and 7000%, respectively, in less than a month!”

“I will watch this fantastic trader closely and I will surely tell you about his progress (or failures). Meanwhile I want to emphasize”, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up, “that we aren't going either to frighten investors, or, on the contrary, persuade them to subscribe to any given signal. We only want to share our experience of analysis of signals, to show what hides behind the figures and charts of monitoring, and to ensure that you received if not stratospheric, but though real profit. Admit that a bird in the hand is worth two in the wood. It is, by the way, one of the fundamental principles of work of our company – stability and reliability. Forex is serious business, which you should take extremely seriously. And, certainly, respectfully!”

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex_signals #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 – 14 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151К to 170К–176К. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151К instead of 167К, and then it announced that the print for September made 156К. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months’ pivot point – to the level of 1.1200, very quickly;

– last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday – during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3(!) minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i.e. 450 points lower – with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicating robo traders and the president of France, François Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main “suspects”. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430;

– as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened – gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90;

– USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.9700–0.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area – the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90% of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend;

– GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher – up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120;

– USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pair’s rise, just over half – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70–103.90, and then decline – first to the level of 102.70, and then – to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75;

– the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, almost 80% of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 – 21 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– referring the future EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (90%) predicted that the pair would decline to the area of 1.1000, which did happen. First with a single bound it travelled 220 points by Thursday, then it stalled at the level of 1.0985, following which we saw a 70 points rebound, in a result of which many traders, using averaging of positions, could recover from a deep drawdown and catch a break. Then the pair again reversed to the south and on Friday evening it made a second attempt to consolidate below the support of 1.1000, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.0970;

– as for the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on H4 turned out to be right, it expressly pointed to continuation of the descending trend, which had begun on September 06. The levels of 1.2340 and 1.2120 were indicated as the support levels. This scenario panned out almost entirely. As early as Tuesday during the Asian session the pair easily got over the first support turning it into the resistance, and it sharply plunged further. Inertia of the decline was so strong that the pair couldn’t even fall 30 points below the support of 1.2120, but then, likewise, it sharply went up to the intended resistance area. The entire second part of the week the pair spent trying to get over the newly formed resistance of 1.2165, and eventually it ended the week at the level of 1.2185;

– USD/JPY. As a reminder, experts' opinions split almost equally in this case: just under half of them voted for the pair's rise, just over the half - for its fall. And here, as with GBP/USD, the graphical analysis proved to be right, it pointed to predominance of bullish sentiment and the pair's rise. But as for the ultimate target of the upswing, the forecast differed from reality. The graphical analysis on H4 predicted that the pair would go up to the resistance of 103.70-103.90, and the one on D1 - up to 106.40. In reality, the pair reached the level somewhere in between the specified highs – at the level of 104.65. The end of the week coincided with the high of October 6 - 104.155;

– The medium-term forecast for USD/CHF starts panning out slowly but steadily. The strength of bulls starts outweighing, and thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to the intended target - 1.0100. Last week it could consolidate above the level of 0.9800, but the resistance of 0.9900 appeared to be an insurmountable barrier on its way, and the pair failed to rise above the level of 0.9910.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– it's clear after a deep decline of EUR/USD, all 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 point to the south. As for the analysts, only half of them agree to this opinion. They indicate the support of 1.0900 as the short-term target. The alternative viewpoint provides for return of the pair to the level of 1.1100, the next resistance will be at the level of 1.1200. As for the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, according to it, the pair should first decline to the level of 1.0940, and then transit to the sideways movement within the range of 1.0940-1.1000. In a longer term the number of supporters of fall increases, and now more than 60% of experts reckon that the pair will go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825;

– GBP/USD. Here, about 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and only 5% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330, and then, maybe it will return to the level of 1.3000. The graphical analysis on D1 strongly disagrees with this scenario, according to its readings the pair can fall below the area of 1.1850. With this, we should take into consideration the fact that for a long time formation of a given trend will depend not so much on the readings of Great Britain as on announcements of politicians on terms and conditions of United Kingdom exit from the EU;

– USD/JPY. For a third week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: one half, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, predicts the upswing of the pair to the high of 105.00, the second half votes for its decline to the level of 102.80 and further down - to the area of 102.00. The graphical analysis on D1 also votes for fall and transition to the sideways trend within 102.80-104.30;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 60% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the bulls' strength have weakened and the pair is in for a temporary rebound to the benchmark area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts reckon that the ascending trend hasn't ended yet, and the pair will be able to go further 50 points - up to the high of 0.9950. The medium-term target remains the same - 1.0100, though the number of supporters of such a scenario decreased from 80% to 65% as compared to the last week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex signals #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 – 28 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– predicting the future of EUR/USD, most experts (60%), backed by 100% of indicators on H4 and D1, expected the pair to go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825. It was just a question of time this process would take. The level of 1.0900 was indicated as the short-term support. Indeed, that support was a short-term one, and the pair got over it on Friday easily, than having declined to the level of 1.0860. It was followed by a small rebound, and the pair ended the week at the level of
1.0885;

– as a reminder, giving the forecast for GBP/USD 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, reckoned that in the near future the pair would not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it would move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330. That forecast was 100% fulfilled. The low of the week was recorded at the level of 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts the pair made on Tuesday and Wednesday to break through the resistance failed, and it wrapped up the week almost in the middle of the specified side channel - at the level of 1.2230;

– USD/JPY. Here, the graphical analysis provided the most accurate forecast, it predicted that the pair would go down and transit to the sideways trend within 102.80–104.30. Indeed, the pair started declining since the very first moment of opening of the week session and during all five days it kept within the side channel within 103.16–104.35;

– USD/CHF pair continues moving insistently towards its main target – the high of 1.0100. With this, last week the part of analysts reckoned that the pair was in for a temporary rebound. But 40%of them were adamant that before going down it should reach the mark of 0.9950 for sure. The pair not only met the target, but also beat it a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– talking about the future of EUR/USD 70% of experts reckon that the pair will continue its declining at least to the level of 1.0800. 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The decline can be even greater if forecast on state of economy of the USA will be proved true. Some readings for September will be announced on Thursday, October 27, and annual data on GDP – on Friday, October 28. The analysts expect them to be rather positive for US dollar, which can drop the pair further. As a reminder, last year the pair fell below the level of 1.0500 repeatedly. Around 30% of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which draws in first a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 and then upswing to the level of 1.0960, hold an alternative view. The next resistance will be at 1.1100;

– GBP/USD. Here, around 80% of analysts, backed by 70% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings early week the pair will keep within 1.2135–1.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will increase up to 1.2000–1.2430. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak on Tuesday, their speeches can influence forming of a new trend, as well as the aforesaid data on the US economy. It should be noted that in a longer term opinion of analysts is changing, and over 55% of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.2800–1.3000 by the New Year;

– USD/JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: 40% vote for its rise, 40% - for its fall, 20% - for a sideways trend with the pivot point of 103.45. If we add readings of 70% of indicators and the graphical analysis to this variety of opinions, in the near future we can expect the pair to upswing first to the level of 105.00, and then fall to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support will be at 102.80. Coming back to the opinions of the experts, it may be noted that in the medium term already 65% of them reckon that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, here everything is unchanged: around 60% of analysts, 90% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – this time to the high of 1.0000, and then bouncing off to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pair will reverse southwards, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels will be at 0.9855 and 0.9820, then – at 0.9765 and 0.9695

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

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