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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be almost 100% correct. Recall that we spoke of a slight increase to 1.1725-1.1750 (and the pair actually climbed to 1.1720), as well as its possible drop and another attempt to test the level of 1.1500 (on Thursday the pair dropped to the horizon 1.1525). In the end, while maintaining the balance between bulls and bears, it returned to the Pivot Point zone for the last one and a half months and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1680;

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the votes from the Bank of England, a positive mood prevailed in the analysts' camp last week - 65% of them expected a pair to rise above 1.3350. However, those 35% of experts who believed that all hawkish statements of the regulator were nothing more than an attempt to support the rate of the British pound, which had lost more than 1,000 points since April, turned out to be right. According to their forecasts, the pair was to fall into the zone of 1.3000-1.3100. That's exactly what happened: the local bottom was found exactly in the middle of the zone, after which the GBP/USD returned to 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Once again, the oscillators turned out to be right - 15% of them pointed it was oversold, and that was enough for the pair to go up. At the same time, it stayed within the rather narrow monthly lateral channel 109.20-110.90, which confirmed the consolidation of the pair in the 110.10 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for BTC/USD said that if the pair confidently passes support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, with a high probability, after a while it will be seen near the horizon $4,300. And it was on June 28, that the bears decidedly went for a breakthrough. It seemed that the collapse was imminent, but when it reached $5,790, the pair first froze, and then jerked up on June 30, reaching a height of $6,525. As a result, over a day, bitcoin has grown by more than 10%, the reason for which was the mysterious large-scale purchase of BTC by an unknown investor, which occurred after the CME futures closed.
Many altcoins went into the growth. following bitcoin. The highest growth was demonstrated by Bitcoin Cash + 13% and Litecoin + 11%. The average growth of the top twenty cryptos was 7-10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Last week, the short-term growth of the EUR/USD was caused by the results of the EU summit and the agreement on migration issues reached. However, in the near future it is hardly possible to have a release of new economic data, which would push the pair EUR/USD further up. The publication of the data on the labor market in the United States (NFP) on Friday July 07 is of particular interest, but the information on the possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy may be on the other side of the scale. As a result, according to 35% of experts, the pair will be able to stay in the side corridor 1.1500-1.1725.
At the same time, it is possible that it will still be able to break the upper boundary of this channel and rise to zone 1.1725-1.1825. This version is supported by 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4
The remaining 45% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought, believe that it will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop by 100-150 points lower;

- A similar picture is drawn by graphical analysis for the GBP/USD as well: on H4, a rise to the level of 1.3300-1.3335, and a fall into the zone 1.2900-1.3100 on D1. 15% of the oscillators also agree with the latter scenario.
As for the experts' opinion, they are divided almost equally: 35% support the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% favor the sideways trend.
We can assume from all of the above, that the pair will continue to move east along the horizon 1.3200, fluctuating in the range 1.3050-1.3325.
If we talk about a medium-term forecast, 65% of analysts have supported the growth of the pair to 1.3450-1.3615 zone, and only 35% have voted for its fall below the level of 1.3000. In the event that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, directly or indirectly confirms the "hawkish" statements of his colleague Andy Haldane in his speech on Thursday, July 05, the pair's jump may be expected as early as this week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that it is already 10% of oscillators on H4 and D1 that give signals that the pair is overbought, most experts (55%) still expect the pair to grow at least to the 111.45 horizon. And it is only after that, in their opinion, it can return to the support of 110.00. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, it warns that, if this level is broken through, the pair can very quickly drop another 100 points lower;

- Cryptocurrencies. Seeing the latest jerk up of the bitcoin, the crypto world wondered: what was this? The long-awaited turn of the trend and the fulfillment of John McAfee's prophecy that bitcoin will cost $1 million per coin by 2020? Or just another trap? And, maybe, the IMF's Kenneth Rogoff was right, when he said that by the end of the year the rate of this forefather of virtual currencies will fall to some miserable $100?
Perhaps the answer to this question remains to be seen soon. For now, as the ancient Greek sage Skelef said, everyone sees what he wants. Analysts who are optimists say that if bitcoin confidently overcomes the level of $ 6,700, it will be a strong enough positive signal for the trend to change. As for the pessimists, we see the last breath of a dying coin. And if the pair BTC/USD is fixed below the horizon of $5,900, it is highly likely that after a while it will be possible to be seen about $4,300, and then even lower.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecasts of the majority of experts (55%) included the level of 1.1725, which the pair must have achieved this week. And this was what happened. Positive economic data from Germany as well as not the rosiest statistics from the labor market in the US (NFP declined by 12.7%), and the once again inflaming trade war between the US and China side with the Euro. As a result, the pair gradually, step by step, reached the height of 1.1765. Then a small correction followed, and it completed the trading session at the level of 1.1745;

- GBP/USD. Summarizing rather contradictory opinions of analysts and indicators, we assumed that the pair would continue to move to the east along the horizon 1.3200, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3325. And, judging by the graph, this forecast turned out to be correct. Starting from 1.3200 mark on Monday night, the pair first fell to the level of 1.3093, then turned and went up, rising to the height of 1.3285.
The pound was once again supported by "hawkish" statements coming from the Bank of England, and the prospect of the interest rate raising. The growth of activity in the service sector of Great Britain also added optimism for the players;

- USD/JPY. The scale that determines the quotes of this pair, on the one hand has the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, and on the other - the trade wars raging on the continents, as a result of which more and more investors choose the currency of this island state as a refuge.
Proceeding from this, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expected the continuation of fluctuations in quotations and the struggle between bulls and bears. According to their forecast, the pair had first to rise to the horizon of 111.45 (it grew to 111.15), and then go down to support 110.00 (in fact it reached the level of 110.27). Then another cycle of fluctuations followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 110.46, confirming its strive for consolidation in zone 110.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the jump on June 30, the pair BTC/USD continued to grow and managed to even reach $6,780, after which it rolled back down. Recall that the optimistic forecast for the past week said that if bitcoin confidently overcame the level of $6,700, it would be a strong enough signal to the long-awaited trend change. However, despite a significant growth, there has been no real breakthrough of this resistance, and the level of $6,600 can be considered as the Pivot Point of the last days.
Following the bitcoin, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) showed a certain growth, although the level of $485 can be considered the upper limit of a two-month down channel. And, in case of a rebound from it, the pair can fall to the price of 360 dollars per coin.
As for the Litecoin (LTC/USD) and the Ripple (XRP/USD), they moved into a sideways trend, ending the week in the same place where it started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the growth of the EUR/USD may continue, but it will be a small one. The level 1.1800 is named as the main resistance. The next resistance is 50 points higher. Next, during July, the pair again expects a decline to the support of 1.1500 and another attempt to break through it.15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this development of events, giving signals that the pair is overbought.
No "revolutionary" news is expected next week. However, we should pay attention to Thursday July 12. On this day data on the growth rates of industrial production in the Eurozone will be published, as well as statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. According to analysts, the rate of inflation in the US over the past month has accelerated, which could push the Fed to another interest rate hike and, as a result, render additional support to the dollar;

- For the pair GBP/USD the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 draws a rebound from support 1.3225, growth to the 1.3400 zone and the subsequent sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000. As for the experts, in the current situation they are waiting for news from the UK.
Thus, on Tuesday July 10 data on the growth rates of industrial production for May will be published, and if it turns out that the April recession is completely overcome, the pound may rise above the 1.3300 mark.
Another speech by the head of the Bank of England may provide support for the British currency on Wednesday July 11, if Mark Carney again talks about the forthcoming tightening of the monetary policy.
The government of Great Britain can play against the pound. In the near future, it must submit its draft agreement on Brexit to the EU, and if it does not contain any important aspects for the economy of the country, the pound may again be under serious pressure;

- USD/JPY. The trade war between the US and China is again in full swing. On July 6, the duties on imported Chinese goods mounting to 25% entered into force. Washington is expected to increase sanctions by another $200 billion, to which China threatens to respond by selling off US treasury securities.
Against this background, as already mentioned, there is a growing demand for the yen, as a safe shelter currency. The pair USD/JPY rose by about 6.7% over the past four months. As for the upcoming week, most analysts (60%) expect the continuation of its growth to the level of 111.40. The remaining 40% believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement and will be held in channel 109.35-110.80. The next support is at the level of 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. The major question for the near future is whether the bitcoin continues its growth or rolls back. At present, it is clearly aiming at overcoming the $7,000 mark, and buyers are not leaving the market yet. However, even now indicators show that this cryptocurrency is overbought, and, in case of any negative news, the trend can very quickly turn from bullish to bearish, returning the pair to the June lows.
On the other hand, a number of experts predict the continuation of the growth of the BTC/USD, naming as one of the numerous reasons the comeback of many investors disappointed in altcoins to this cryptocurrency, the long absence of bad news, and, paradoxically, the low volume of trading. The latter means that the desperate have already left the ship, and those who wish to sell these coins are extremely few. There remain only those who, no matter what, are ready to keep the bitcoin either till the full victory or the complete collapse. That is why the optimists keep saying that by the end of the year BTC will cost at least $50,000 (Arthur Hayes, BitMEX), or at least $25,000 (Tom Lee, FundStrat).


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be absolutely correct. Recall that it assumed first a small growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1800 (in reality, it rose to the height of 1.1790), and then a fall (it fell to the level of 1.1620). After that, a rebound followed, and the pair completed the trading session in a strong support/resistance zone 1.1685;

- GBP/USD. Despite the fact that the volatility was somewhat less than expected, the main trends for this pair were fairly accurately pointed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to its scenario, the pair was expected to grow to the 1.3400 zone (it rose to 1.3360), and then a sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000 was expected (it fell to the level of 1.3100).
As expected, another blow to the pound was caused by the government of Great Britain. Last week, key Brexit ministers resigned - Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Secretary for Brexit David Davis, which put an extra pressure on the pound;

- USD/JPY. Despite the trade war between the US and China and the growing demand for the yen as a safe haven, the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan still plays against the currency of this island nation. The main blow to the yen was caused by the rapid growth of Asian stocks and, accordingly, the indices Nikkei and MSCI Asia Pacific. As a result, it fell against all G-10 currencies and lost more than 240 points against the US dollar.
At the end of the five-day period, the traditional correction followed, and the pair froze at 112.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. We warned that in the event of any negative news, the ascending trend of bitcoin could very quickly turn from bullish into bearish, leading the pair to June lows. It was said multiple times that in fact all this news is only a virtual excuse, using which large speculators start moving virtual currencies up or down. How, for example, could the theft from the Swiss platform Bancor "some" $23.5 million ($13.5 million according to other sources) affect the sinking of the whole market? No way it could, but as a result, bitcoin collapsed by almost 11%, dragging along all the main altcoins as well.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Oscillators on both H4 and D1 are in complete disarray as to the future of this pair - about a third of them are green, one third are red and one third are neutral gray. As for analysts, 80% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue its movement to the horizon 1.1500. Nearest supports are at the levels of 1.1625, 1.1590 and 1.1550.
The upcoming meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia on Monday, July 16 may strengthen the dollar. Experts do not expect any significant breakthrough from this meeting, but if both leaders express certain optimism on its results, this can play into the hands of the American currency.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair can once again test the level of 1.1790 and, if successful, rise to resistance 1.1830;

- GBP / USD. The resignation of the two main Brexit negotiators means that British Prime Minister Teresa May chose a soft option for her country to leave the EU. And if she keeps her post, this can strengthen the position of the pound in the future. However, right now the market is negative and most analysts (70%) predict the continuation of the fall of the pair GBP/USD first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower.
10% of oscillators agree with this forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought, as well as graphical analysis on D1. At the same time, the latter points out that the pair can move in the side corridor in the range 1.3 190-1.3285 for a while;

- Also, 70% of experts expect strengthening of the dollar to the Japanese yen as well. In their opinion, the pair USD/JPY will seek to reach the highs of last December in the zone of 113.50. The next goal for it is the last November high. - 114.75.
The graphical analysis on H4 also agrees with this development of events. But on D1, it draws an opposite picture - the fall into the zone 110.25-111.15, and then even lower - to support 109.35.
It should be noted that even now a number of analysts are calling for being very cautious with the dollar, as this currency, according to their forecasts, has already approached the overbought state;

- Cryptocurrencies. We listed the factors that could positively affect the growth of the pair BTC / USD, in the previous forecast. Now, a couple of words about the negative side.
In fact, it was quite simple to predict the drop of bitcoin last week - it is enough to connect the points A, B, C and D on the chart to see the attenuation of the rising trend. Now the capitalization of the market is again near the 2018 lows and is about $240 billion. If such drying continues, according to some experts, the process can acquire the character of a collapse. As a result, the bitcoin will be around $3000, and the total market capitalization will not exceed half of the current market capitalization.
Meanwhile, the pair BTC/USD is trading roughly midway between the June lows ($5,790) and the July highs ($6,830) and, if nothing extraordinary happens, it will likely stay in this corridor for a few more weeks.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that in the opinion of 80% of experts who were supported by graphical analysis on D 1, the pair was supposed to continue its descent to the horizon 1.1500. An alternative point of view was presented by only 20% of analysts who expected that it could once again test the level of 1.1790. However, adjustments to all these forecasts have been traditionally made by the summer and vacation season. As a result, the pair, as if tired of lying on the beach, could only lazily rise to the level of 1.1745, and then descend to the level of 1.1574. As for the end of the week, after Donald Trump criticized the Fed policy and the strong dollar, the euro won back the losses, and the pair returned to the upper half of the summer side channel, having stopped at 1.1720;

- The negative mood of the market in relation to the pair GBP/USD was supported by the majority of analysts (70%), who expected the continuation of its fall first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower. This forecast turned out to be quite accurate: the pair reached the horizon of 1.3100 by the middle of the week, then it groped for the bottom in the support zone for the two-month downtrend channel - 1.2955, fought back and completed the five-day period near its central line at 1.3131;

- USD/JPY. Here, too, most experts (70%) expected the dollar to strengthen and the pair to seek to reach the last year's highs in zone 113.50. In the first half of the week, it was really soaring 80 points. However, the correction in the US stock market caused a decline in its quotes, the pair turned around and fell to the level of 111.40by the end of the week session;

- Cryptocurrencies. Two weeks ago, we listed some of the reasons that could lead to the bitcoin growth, and then assumed that the BTC/USD would hold in the range of $ 5,790-6830 for some time. But only if nothing extraordinary happens.
As it always happens with crypto-currencies, it happened - the major financial players announced their desire to enter this market. One of them was the investment giant BlackRock, the asset manager of 6.3 trillion dollars. Another locomotive was the company MasterCard, which registered a patent in the field of operations with bitcoin. All this strongly inspired the market, as a result of which the rate of this digital currency increased by about $1350 (21%), reaching $7.585.
Following the bitcoin, the main altcoins also moved up, but their growth, unlike the leader's, was short-lived, and by the end of the week the bears managed to restore their positions, if not completely, at least partially. For example, the pair XRP/USD, starting at $0.43, quickly rose to $0.52, but then as quickly fell to $0.45 per coin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The ECB's interest rate decision and the press conference of its head Mario Draghi are expected on Thursday July 26. But neither of these are expected to cause any special surprise to the market. More serious concern for the euro is caused by the visit of the European Commission officials to Washington, where they should discuss sanctions and counter-sanctions in the trade war between the EU and the United States with President Trump. The aggravation of the situation may again upset the pair, which is why 60% of analysts are waiting for its return to the level of 1.1575, and in case of its breakdown - to the June-July low at 1.1500.
15% of oscillators that signal the pair is overbought and the graphical analysis agree. With this scenario. However, on H4, graphical analysis indicates that before it falls, the pair can still rise to resistance 1.1790.The next resistance level is 1.1850;

- Macroeconomic data from the British Isles, as well as the situation with Brexit, do not inspire optimism, which also affects the analysts' forecasts. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, are waiting for the continuation of the downtrend for the pair GBP/USD. Oscillators on D1 are also Painted in red, indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 1.2955 and 1.2830.
The remaining 35% of experts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, expect a growth of the pair, although small. The pound can also be supported by the UK GDP data, which will be released on Friday 27 July. It is expected that the GDP will grow by 2% compared to the previous quarter. Target levels for the pair are1.3190, 1.3245 and 1.3270;

- USD/JPY. Here a slight advantage is on the side of the bulls, if we talk of experts - they are 50%.45% side with the bears and 5% abstained. {0Graphical analysis on H4 and 80% of oscillators on D1 are for the growth of the pair as well. The nearest targets are 112.20 and 112.65, then 113.15 and 114.00.
An alternative point of view, apart from 45% of experts, is supported by graphical analysis on D 1 and most oscillators on H4. The support levels are 110.75, 110.30 and 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. If last week the crypto market capitalization was close to the 2018 lows and amounted to about $240 billion, by Wednesday July 18 it was close to $300 billion. But more importantly, the share of buyers at that moment increased to 27%. The last time this happened was on April 8 this year.
However, the increase in volumes occurred too sharply - the first jump lasted only 20 minutes. And even though the bears suffered very significant losses - many short positions closed on stop-losses with significant losses, there is still no confidence in the change in the main trend for an increasing one for the BTC/USD.
By the end of Friday July 20, the pair continues to hold within a strong support/resistance zone of 7,270-7,730, which can be called Pivot Point of spring-summer 2018. It is possible that, despite being overbought, it will still attempt to break through its upper limit. Although, experts believe its decline to support 6,830 to be more likely.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The past seven days, like the previous one and a half months, did not bring any significant events, and the market is in a lazy-holiday mood because of that. The pair's volatility is 130 points, and the maximum deviation from the Pivot Point of the medium-range lateral channel (1.1660) is even less - only 90 points, after which the pair returns to the central zone. So it happened this time as well - at the end of the trading session, it froze at 1.1658;

- the GBP/USD pair also behaved weakly, gradually consolidating near the horizon of 1.3100. The range of British currency fluctuations was not much higher than that of the euro and amounted to only about 145 points. The pair finished the week at the level of 1.3102;

- USD/JPY. This pair was painstakingly drawing the head-and-shoulders figure for the whole month of July, although to some, it might be more like a cowboy hat. Last week was devoted to the right field of this hat, which means a sideways trend within the boundaries of 110.58-111.53. As for the end of the week, the pair met it in the middle of the channel at around 111.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. One of the development variants last week provided for a bitcoin attempt to break through the level of $8,000. And despite being overbought, it did it. The main growth driver was the expectation that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would still allow the Winklevoss brothers to launch Bitcoin ETF. The main trading volumes were traded at Japanese and South Korean crypto-exchanges.
But as soon as the BTC/USD approached the mark of $ 8,500, it became known that the SEC rejected the application of the brothers once again. As a result, bitcoin collapsed below the $8,000 horizon once again, losing about $630. However, the fall did not last long, and the pair once again broke through the eight-thousand level on Friday evening and reached the height of $8,275.
As for the main altcoins: etherium, ripple, litecoin, etc., they showed an average growth of 6-7%, following the bitcoin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The next week will be filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. However, at the present moment, surprises should not be expected either from the data on the GDP of the Eurozone, or from the values of the consumer price index, which will be announced on Tuesday July 31.
If we look at other developments concerning the euro/dollar pair, one can note the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate and the Fed's subsequent comment on Wednesday, August 1, as well as the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, August 3. But here, most likely, there will be only a small short-term increase in volatility.
As for the oscillators, their indications on D 1 were divided into almost equal parts - one third are for the growth of the pair, one third are for its fall and one third are for the sideways trend. But as for the experts, the overwhelming majority of them (70%) still tends to see the pair reduce to the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850. However, it is possible that the pair will stay within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750 for some time, and only then it will go down. It is this scenario that is drawn by the graphical analysis on D1.
This time only 30% of analysts voted for the growth of the pair to the upper border of the channel 1.1850;

- The future of the British pound is not encouraging, even despite the possible increase by the Bank of England interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which will be known on Thursday August 2. 65% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue its decline - first to the level of 1.3000-1.3070, and then to support 1.2955. The ultimate goal is the 2017 summer lows in the zone 1.2800.
An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts who believe that the pair has reached the local bottom and will now return to the marks around 1.3200-1.3300. In their opinion, its rise during August to a height of 1.3450 is possible. 15% of oscillators side with the bulls as well, giving signals the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. Here, the experts who support the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, at least, to the zone of 111.75-112.20. are preponderant (60%) The graphical analysis on H4 fully agrees with this.
The remaining 40% place their hopes to Tuesday, July 31. On this day, the Bank of Japan is likely to leave Interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but the comments of the leadership of this regulator have a chance to support the yen. But this will happen only if there are at least hints of a change in monetary policy and an increase in the interest rate to positive values. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. Traders, investors and miners have been looking forward to the bitcoin graph for the past few weeks. Since June 28, the rate of this currency has grown by 42%, and the total capitalization of the cryptomarket has exceeded 300 billion dollars. After the bitcoin reached the height of $8,500, there were quite a lot of chances that a $10,000 mark would be conquered. Moreover, many factors contribute to this. We list only a few of them:
- the first is the growth of political risks and, as a consequence, a decrease in the demand for "classical" assets and a decline in trading volumes in traditional markets. It is also possible to add instability in a number of countries, thanks to which crypto-currencies become a tool for saving the capital;
- the second factor is the emergence of new technological solutions for attracting large institutional investors at a number of crypto-exchanges;
- the third is more active recognition of cryptocurrencies at the state level, for example, in South Korea or in Venezuela. According to the statement of the president of this country, the Venezuelan currency bolivar will soon be tied to the national cryptocurrency Petro;
- the fourth one is the launch of a platform for the creation of crypto-exchanges;
- the fifth is statements of high state officials and other VIP-persons, like former Assistant to US President Steve Bannon, about their investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Experts believe that in case of growth of the pair BTC/USD above $10,000, there will be even more of those wishing to invest in bitcoin. As a result, there are more and more forecasts saying that the year-old rally may repeat, and bitcoin can rise well above $ 20,000 by the end of the year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

NordFX is an international broker which provides individual and corporate clients a full range of services for trading in Forex, gold, silver and cryptocurrencies.

The company was founded in 2008. In all its endeavours NordFX maintains state of the art technologies and cutting-edge software, whilst constantly expanding the spectrum of financial instruments and services it offers. The company has been distinguished with 35 prestigious professional prizes and awards. During its years of operation NordFX has seen over 1,200,000 accounts being opened by clients from over 100 countries.

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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The past week was filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. But not now, not at the height of the holiday season. We did not expect any surprises either from the data on the Eurozone GDP or from the values of the consumer price index. There was a little hope for the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate and on the publication of data on the US labor market, but there were no special volatility outbursts there either. Even the drop in the NFP by 36.7% (from 248K to 157K) did not impress the market.
As a result, the situation was as had been expected by many experts: taking into account the standard backlash, the pair stayed within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750, reaching a maximum of 1.1745, then groping for the local bottom at 1.1560 and finally ending the five-day session at the mark 1.1567;

- GBP/USD. The future of the British pound was not encouraging, even despite the Bank of England's possible increase in the interest rate - 65% of experts considered that the GBP/USD would continue its decline to the zone of 1.3000.
This prediction turned out to be absolutely correct. On the eve of raising the rate, the pound grew slightly. Then, as expected, on Thursday, August 2, the regulator lifted it from 0.50% to 0.75%. But then the accompanying commentary made it clear that one should not expect another increase in the foreseeable future - they say, the economy is not all right, and there are problems with the Brexit. As a result, the pair turned around and quickly fell to the horizon 1.2975. And it met the end of the week's session exactly where the experts expected, at 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The report on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, collapsed the yen, instead of strengthening it. The main theses from its head Haruhiko Kuroda speech were interpreted by the market as the intention to preserve ultra-soft policy and to stimulate the weakening of the Japanese currency by increasing the yield of 10-year government bonds.
As a result, the USD/JPY quotes jumped to 112.15. However, the pair did not manage to consolidate at this height and, having gone down about 90 points, it finished the week at the level of 111.25;

- Cryptocurrencies. This market was controlled by the bears for the whole week. The fact that bitcoin and major altcoins were recently overbought sided with the bears. The absence of positive news from regulators and market makers did not help the growth either.
As a result, the BTCUSD fell by $1,000, losing about 12% during the week, and reached the mid-July value around $7,280 per coin.
The Ethereum lost even more, about 14%, breaking at some point the support at $400. Litecoin lost 11%, but the ripple was more stable: having fallen by 7%, it then turned and gained back 2.5%;



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. No significant events that could seriously affect the mood of the market are expected next week. Many indicators indicate a virtually total lack of activity. MACD on D 1 almost horizontally moves slightly below the zero mark for the fourth week running. Approximately 85% of all oscillators are painted red, but the remaining 15% are already signaling the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, 70%, supported by graphical analysis, still believe that the pair still should reach the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850, and only then go up. The remaining 30% have voted for the move in the narrower three-week corridor 1.1575-1.1750;

- the scenario for the future of the British pound is also negative. Most analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair GBP/USD to fall to the low of the summer of 2017 in the zone of 1.2800. This development is supported by all oscillators (except one) and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The nearest support is 1.2955, the next one is 100 points lower.
An alternative point of view is represented by 30% of experts who believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement in channel 1.2955-1.3210. The nearest resistance is in the area of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. here most of the experts (75%) support the strengthening of the dollar .Despite the fall of the pair at the end of last week, it stayed within the medium-term rising channel, which began at the end of this March, and is now at the line of its support .The immediate goal for the pair will be the height of 112,000, the ultimate goal - 113.15.
If the the supporters of the bears win, the pair is expected to march to the south. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75. It should be noted that, when moving from a weekly forecast to a forecast until the end of the summer, the number of supporters of such a scenario is growing among analysts from 25% to 45%.
The compromise version is offered by graphical analysis: first a decline to the level of 110.60, and then rise to the level of 112.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Supporters of the Elliot wave theory can see the end of the 5th rising wave of the BTC/USD in the July 25 maximum. Thus, the subsequent fall is an impulse wave A, after which the market expects a corrective wave B and a rise to the zone of 7,800-8,000. The most optimistic goal for the first half of August is to take the height of $10,000.
However, the main indicators - both trend and volume indicators, as well as oscillators - do not yet give explicit signals for the trend change on timeframes D1 and W1. Therefore, in case the height $7,300 is broken down, it is possible to decline to the horizon $6,700. The strongest support is in the $6,000-6,100 zone - this is the level when mining becomes almost unprofitable.
According to one of the theories, one of the main reasons for the fall in quotes in 2018 in many respects are the miners. Their increased number resulted in a significant complication of the mining algorithm. And, as the price of bitcoins declined, and the profitability of mining was reduced, the owners of crypto farms began to get rid of the stocks of the coins they had mined, thus rendering themselves a truly bad service.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
https://nordfx.io/

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. No matter how you see President Trump, the US economic policy demonstrates obvious success. Forecast for the US GDP in 2018 grows together with stock indexes, and the unemployment rate should go down by the middle of next year to the lowest level for the last 50 years. As a result of the US-led trade wars, the economies of the Eurozone and China have already begun to experience serious problems. Strengthening the success, Donald Trump is likely to increase import duties further, which allows American producers not to be afraid of the dollar strengthening.
At the same time, 88% of respondents interviewed by the Wall Street Journal expect that the Fed will increase interest rates four times this year. And it also fuels interest in the American currency.
And then the Turkish lira has hit the euro. Against the deterioration in US-Turkish relations over the past few days, it has "dried up" with respect to the dollar by about 25%.
It's no secret that a number of major European banks are lending to the Turkish economy, and a sharp reduction in the price of its currency can create serious difficulties for them. This is what an article in the Financial Times said, fueling panic. As a result, starting from Thursday August 9, the pair EUR/USD has sharply gone down.
Recall that 70% of the experts had voted that the pair would go down to the medium-term support 1.1505, which was reached by the pair on Friday. But it did not intend to stop there and fell another 120 points, groping for the local bottom at the level of 1.1385. At the end of the week's session, after a slight rebound, the pair was traded in the zone 1.1410;

- GBP/USD. The future of the British pound looks even gloomier than a week ago. The statements of the British Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox about 60% probability of a hard version of Brexit sounded in unison with the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney and strengthened the pessimism of the market.
Last week, most analysts (70%) predicted a decline of the GBP/USD to the minimum values of the summer of 2017, which was what happened. The weekly low was fixed at 1.2720, and the end of the five-day period was at 1.2765;

- USD/JPY. The expansion of the trade war between the US and China, combined with the Turkish crisis, play into the hands of the Japanese yen as a safe haven. As a result, it won back about 35 points from the dollar, finishing the week at around 110.90;

- Cryptocurrencies. This market was still controlled by the bears. Moreover, their pressure has greatly increased. The market capitalization has fallen by about 10% and now stands at about $230 billion.
In our last week forecast, we indicated that the strongest support for bitcoin is in the $6,000-6,100 zone, the level when mining becomes almost unprofitable. This forecast was 100% true: on Thursday August 8, the pair BTC/USD reached the low at $6,125, after which it fought back and rose to the area of 6,500.
The Ethereum (ETH) lost about 14.5% in the week, Litecoin (LTH) - 22%, ripple (XRP) - more than a quarter of its value.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- the main factors that determine the movement of dollar pairs for the near future, have been described above. As for the EUR/USD, 60% of analysts believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair will go down. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1, most indicators agree with this development. The target is the zone 1.1120-1.1300.
On the other hand, 40% of the experts have voted that the pair will be able to stay in the echelon 1.1370-1.1515 in the near future, which is confirmed by signals that it is oversold, which are filed by 15% of the oscillators;

- GBP/USD. Zone 1.2770 is a fairly strong level of support/resistance, which the pair repeatedly tested in both 2016 and 2017.
55% of experts believe that the negative momentum of the pair will continue for some time, and it may drop to support 1.2675-1.2720. As for the remaining 45% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair is already expecting a corrective retreat to the upper boundary of the medium-term downward channel in the zone 1.2940. And only after having reached this height, it will turn around and continue its movement to the south. Both graphical analysis and 20% of oscillators that signal the that this pair is oversold agree with this scenario;

- USD/ PY. If you look at the graphs on the time frames D1 and W1, you can see the expected breakdown of the lower boundary of the medium-term channel, which began at the end of last March. It is still too early to consider this a breakthrough, but almost 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the strengthening of the yen, as a safe haven, will continue, and the pair will drop to at least 110.30. The next support is 100 points lower.
On the other hand, the Pivot Point area of the last 12 months can be considered the zone of 111.60-110.80, which indicates the possibility of the pair rebounding upwards - to the resistance of 112.00-112.25, with which 30% of analysts and the graphic analysis on D1 agree;

- Cryptocurrencies. Negative sentiment in this market is constantly fueled by negative publications in the media. Thus, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has predicted in his article in the New York Times, a complete collapse for the entire cryptocurrency market. The reason is the high cost of transactions with virtual money, which makes it unprofitable to use it in trading operations. According to Bloomberg, the volume of commercial operations with bitcoin around the world in May fell to a meager amount of $60 million.
Another publication, in the Wall Street Journal, confirms the version that the volatility of cryptocurrencies is not subject to any economic justification. For example, their rate is influenced by the actions of organized groups of "gray traders" that are created in social networks, such as Telegram. According to the WSJ version, 175 cases of such market manipulation were registered in half a year, when a sharp jump up of the cryptocurrency is followed by a sharp collapse. This manipulation has been called "Pump and Dump".
As for the near future of the pair BTC/USD, it is possible that it may linger in the $5.760-6.800 zone for some time. This is expected, of course, if the week does not bring any important news - either real, or "inflated" according to the " Pump and Dump" scheme. It is important to note that the level of 5.760 is the support that the pair could not overcome from the very beginning of its fall on December 17, 2017.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
https://nordfx.io/