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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 31 – November 4, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, those 30% of experts, having suggested a possible rise of the pair, turned out to be right. As a reminder, such scenario was also backed by the graphical analysis, according to it a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 should change to the upswing to the level of 1.0960. The level of 1.1100 was indicated as the next resistance level. Practically, that was exactly what happened: early in the week the pair was moving eastwards within the predetermined range, and then it went up, and toward the very end of the week it surged upward striving to reach the high of 1.1000. However, it failed to reach it, and it wrapped up the week 25 points above the first resistance level – at the level of 0.0985;

– GBP/USD. Here 80% of analysts reckoned that in the near future the pair would start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. This happened on Tuesday, October 25, ahead of the speeches of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Just within 3 hours the pair lost almost 160 points and reached the bottom at the level of 1.2082, and then – in a similar rapid manner – it regained almost all losses, wrapping up the week around the one of the strongest October levels of support/resistance – at 1.2185;

– the forecast for USD/JPY could be reduced to two trends – first the pair’s rise to the level of 105.00, and then its declining to the support in the area of 103.20. Indeed, starting from Monday the pair went up and as early as Thursday it reached that high. On Friday it went up further 50 points, following which the bulls took well-deserved rest, and the bears, meeting almost no resistance, immediately pushed the pair 100 points down;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, the majority of analysts, indicators and the graphical analysis by common consent voted for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – up to the high of 1.0000, and then – rebound to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The level of 0.9855 was indicated as the next support level. The forecast was if not 100%, then at least 99.98% accurately fulfilled, because the pair reached that very high of 0.9998 on Tuesday, October 25. The promised rebound also occurred – and exactly to the specified support as well. The pair ended the week at the level of 0.9875.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– notwithstanding last week’s rise of the pair, 70% of experts continue to insist that the pair should anyway go down at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they have taken a neutral stance. However, the graphical analysis on H4 reckons that the pair, having moved down to the level of 1.0900, will reverse again to the north and will move towards the resistance of 1.1100. Around 30% of analysts agree to this scenario. At the same time, we should keep in mind that the upcoming week is busy in terms of significant economic events, including release of the United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 2, and release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, November 4. The upcoming USA presidential elections, scheduled for November 8, should also be taken into account. All these events can lead to great exchange rate fluctuations, which is fraught with not only large profit but also huge risks for traders;

– next week not only the US Fed, but also the Bank of England will announce its Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, November 3), however, the analysts don’t expect any surprises from it. As for their opinion on GBP/USD, around 70% of them point to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the level of 1.2000, and maybe even 100 points lower. The indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully concur with this opinion. However, the latter deems it possible that before going down the pair can rise to the resistance of 1.2250. The next resistance will be at 1.2330.

– USD/JPY. For a fifth week in a row the experts have no consensus on the future of this pair: 45% vote for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.50–106.00, 25% - for its fall to the support of 102.80 and 30% - for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and the graphical analysis, they reckon that the pair will try to re-approach the resistance of 105.50, and then will literally nosedive – first to the support of 104.00, and then even lower – to the area of 102.40–102.80. But, as with both foregoing cases, here you should keep in mind the significant news from the USA, and also release of the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, November 1;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 70% of analysts believe that the pair should definitely return to the level of 1. 0000.The remaining 30% reckon that it hasn’t finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.9700–0.9800. The graphical analysis on H4, which believes that the decline can be even greater, also agrees with this scenario, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third opinion, according to which, due to the events mentioned above, in the near future the pair will just mirror EUR/USD acting, a negative correlation with which is most noticeable during the periods of heightened volatility.


Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.


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X DAY - Tuesday, November 8, 2016
JP Morgan analysts believe that the dollar will weaken regardless of the US electoral outcome. In the event of Trump's victory, NordFX analysts forecast that its fall may reach 10-15%. If, on the other hand, Hillary Clinton wins, the fluctuation of all indicators may reach ± 5%.
The upcoming presidential election on November 8 could significantly change the situation in the US economy and consequently lead to major fluctuations of the dollar against other world currencies. The electoral platforms of the two major candidates for the US presidency, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, promise major changes in trade policies, according to Bloomberg. To add to this, according to analysts from JP Morgan Chase (one of the largest brokers) a victory of any of these candidates may result at the very least in increased tension between Washington and its partners, if not in outright trade wars. This carries the risk of a reorientation of investors from the dollar to other currencies.
A similar view is shared by Deutsche Bank, as well as HSBC and Credit Suisse. According to one of the leading strategists of the Credit Suisse New York branch, S. Jalinoos, the dollar should start cheapening right after the election.
A statement on USDJPY has been made by Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts as well, who expect that the election of Donald Trump will cause the dollar to fall in price relative to the appreciation of the Japanese currency.
The situation for GBPUSD is more complicated: on the one hand, there are disturbances associated with the UK exit from the EU, and on the other there is an equally large dose of uncertainty associated with the presidential election in the United States. Morgan Stanley Research believe that the dollar may well give way to the pound and that the pair will go up.
"We are certain to have trade conflicts under the next president,” says John Normand of JP Morgan. “These will be major in the case of Trump's victory and moderate in the case of Clinton’s." The same opinion is shared by analysts of the international brokerage company NordFX. In their view, if Donald Trump becomes US president the dollar could fall against the euro by an excess of 1000 points.
"If Hillary Clinton wins,” says NordFX chief analyst John Gordon, “volatility is likely to be smaller and will not exceed ± 5%. But these five percent for the EURUSD will make about 500 points.”
“Let's take a look at what usually happens after elections,” continues John Gordon. “In 2000, the Republican George W. Bush won, resulting in the dollar going into a sharp nosedive and losing about 5,300 points against the euro over the course of the year. The next election took place in 2004, and Bush won again. It would seem that nothing should have changed but, on the contrary, the pair made a U-turn inspired by his new electoral campaign promises, and it only took two months for the US currency to rise by 2000 points. In the 2008 election, Democrat Barack Obama became President, which resulted in the trend changing again: the dollar dropped more than 2350 points in six weeks. The Obama re-election in 2012 brought one more turn and a bounce upwards of 1050 points in less than three months.”
“And note,” stresses the NordFX expert, “a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins - the Republicans or the Democrats. I am confident that this election will not be an exception. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months - as long as investors do not completely figure out which of the electoral promises of the new President will be met, and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, allowing one to earn good money.
At this moment, we can expect a powerful movement of not only currencies rates, but also of stock market indices and of US company shares, and these movements will begin almost immediately as soon as the first preliminary results of the vote count are made public. In this situation, traders should allocate their financial assets very wisely and should be alert, so as not to miss the utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 07 - 11, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Giving our forecast for EUR/USD, we warned that it will be the political rather than economic situation that would determine all dollar pair trends in the run up to the presidential elections in the United States. That is what has been happening. Any shift of the American electorate in favour of Donald Trump played against the dollar. As a result, surprisingly, the most accurate forecast was given not by experts, but... by graphical analysis, which predicted the growth of the pair to the resistance level of 1.1100, which was reached on Wednesday, November 2. Then, turning this resistance into a Pivot level, the pair moved to a sideways trend and finished the week at 1.1140;
- GBP/USD. The situation with this pair proved to be similar to what happened to EUR/USD. In this case an additional bullish hand was played by the UK High Court ruling, which said that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot start the process of the UK leaving the EU without a vote in Parliament. As a result, the pair broke all expected resistance levels and rose to the level of 1.2517;
- With regard to the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis also proved to be as accurate as can realistically be expected. As a reminder, indicator and graphical analysis suggested that the pair would again try to move closer to the resistance level of 105.50, after which it would literally collapse - first to the support level of 104.00 and then even lower - to the 102.40-102.80 zone. If we look at the chart, we see that this prediction came true by almost 100% - the pair started Monday by moving northwards, but after reaching 105.22 it turned around. On Tuesday it flew down, slowed down for a few hours in the 104.00 area and reached its low point at the level of 102.54 on Thursday. Then, after a small correction, the pair settled down and moved to a sideways trend, moving in the 102.82-103.35 channel;
- Graphical analysis turned out to be 100% correct in its forecast for USD/CHF as well. It clearly pointed out that the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680: at the end of the week-long session it obediently stopped with this precise value being displayed on the monitor.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- In anticipation of the upcoming Presidential election in the United States on Tuesday November 8, it is a fruitless task to make any forecasts on dollar pairs. That is why more than 60% of the experts just shrug when speaking about the near future of EUR/USD. As for the indicators, they almost unanimously insist on the growth of the pair in agreement with those analysts who predict a fall of the dollar by more than 1000 points in the event Donald Trump wins the election. But, judging by the fact that 85% of experts suggest growth of the dollar in the medium-term, they are inclined to believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected new US President. In this case, according to them, the pair can go down about 500 points and reach the mark of 1.0600;
- The opinion of analysts on the future of GBP/USD is also quite vague. About 50% of them, together with indicators, look to the north, 35% look to the south and the remaining 15%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, look to the east. It is worth mentioning that there is no consensus in the medium term either – a certain clarity will only emerge following the results of the American election. However, there may be serious corrections of trends depending on the situation with the UK exit from the European Union;
- USD/JPY. The experts are split in their forecast exactly halfway, with one half of them expecting growth and the other a fall. The reasons for this are clear and have been described above. As for a longer term forecast, almost 70% of analysts believe the dollar will strengthen and the pair will grow at least to the 106.00-107.00 zone;
- And finally the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here the opinion of the experts is almost unanimous: more than 90% of them believe that the pair will certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agrees with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target.
In conclusion, let me mention the opinion of NordFX senior analyst John Gordon. "Analysis of previous presidential elections in the United States shows,” stresses the NordFX expert, “that a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins, be it the Republicans or the Democrats. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months, ie for as long as investors take to figure out which out which of their electoral promises the new President will fulfil and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, giving one the opportunity to earn good money. In this situation, traders should manage their financial assets very wisely and should remain alert, so as not to miss the chance to utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets - they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 14 - 18, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- In anticipation of the US Presidential election, most experts simply refused to make any predictions on USD pairs. However, in the medium-term forecast, expecting the victory of Hillary Clinton 85% of experts predicted growth in the dollar and a decline of the EUR/USD pair. As a reminder, during the entire second half of October, forecasts were based on the pair's progress to the level of 1.0800. Come November 8, Donald Trump becomes President of the United States and the pair quickly climbed 300 points to the level of 1.1300. Then, as if his rival won the election, it collapsed just as quickly, reaching the trough at 1.0830 on Friday;
- Similar forecasts and uncertainty were observed with respect to GBP/USD as well. As a result, in spite of the American election, the pair managed to hold out in the corridor of 1.2350-1.2550 for most of the week. Only at the end of the week, having broken through the upper boundary of the channel, it went on northward. As a result, whilst the election led to the dollar strengthening against the euro, it also led to it surrendering to the British pound;
- USD/JPY. Speaking about the future of this pair, 70% of analysts predicted growth of the pair to the 106.00-107.00 zone, which is what happened: it is in this range that the pair finished this hectic week;
- More than 90% of the experts believed that the USD/CHF pair should certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agreed with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target. This forecast can also be considered fulfilled: having survived the first shock of Trump's election, the pair returned to the set trend, reaching the resistance of 0.9820 by Thursday. It then broke through it to approach the level of 0.9900.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:
- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. But most experts have an opposite opinion: about 70% of them believe that the pair should return to the level of 1.1000. Graphical analysis found a compromise between the computer and the human mind - it indicates an initial fall of the pair to the level of 1.0800, followed by a rise to 1.1055. After that, according to its forecast, the pair will go down again to the support level of 1.0850. As for analysts, when giving their medium-term forecast 70% of them named the zone of 1.0600-1.0750 as the trough;
- Analysts are split exactly halfway on the future of GBP/USD. 50% of them, in full agreement with the indicators, say that the pair will target the 1.3000 mark. The other half expects it to descend to the support in the area of 1.2380. As for the readings of graphical analysis, they suggest that the pair has reached its local maximum and is now expected to fall. The support levels are 1.2380 and 1.2150;
- Experts expect a decline for the pair USD/JPY as well. According to the vast majority of them (90%), the pair should go down to the zone of 104.00-104.50. However, developments of the political situation in the United States and the statements of the new President Elect will certainly influence local trends;
- And finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. This time, experts have shown a striking unanimity - 100% of them have pointed to the north, calling the height of 0.9950 the immediate goal. However, graphical analysis on H4 says that before starting to climb, the pair may stay in the side channel 0.9810-0.9910 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be considered a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF 28 November - 02 December 2016.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- As a reminder, last week more than half of oscillators indicated the overselling of the EUR/USD pair, which gave a reason to talk about a temporary pause in the pair’s southward movement. And so it happened. However, this can hardly be called a correction. It will be more precise to talk about a transition to a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 1.0585. The pair has not yet been able to reach its goal, the minimum of 2015 at 1.0450, and has finished the week in the same place where it began: in the area of the Pivot level;

- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, 40% of analysts were in favour of the pair’s growth, whilst 20% favoured a sideways channel. Graphical analysis indicated the levels of 1.2270 and 1.2440 as boundaries of such a channel. The pair has indeed failed to cross the lower boundary and on Monday leapt upwards by 200 points, turning the level of 1.2440 into a Pivot Point. It moved along it for all four remaining days;

- However, USD/JPY has surely disappointed those 60% experts who had expected its decline. It moved sideways until mid-Wednesday, fluctuating slightly, almost as if it was wondering what direction to choose. The news that came from the US dispelled its doubts, and the pair went up sharply, rising by nearly 300 points. In total, over the past three weeks, the yen lost more than 1000 points to the dollar;

- USD/CHF: the experts' opinions diverged regarding the behaviour of this pair: 55% voted in favour of its growth, 45% voted for its fall. As a result, as is often the case, the pair mirrored the behaviour of EUR/USD, having returned to Monday’s values on Friday.

***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- In their forecast for EUR/USD, all the indicators split themselves into two groups: the predictions on H4 foretell a sideways trend, whilst D1 clearly indicates a southward one. The opinion of the latter is supported by the vast majority (70%) of analysts, who identify the levels of 1.0500 and 1.0460 as potential support levels. The remaining 30% of experts believe that the pair will still rebound up to the 1.0650-1.0700 area. A compromise solution is offered by graphical analysis which draws a sideways channel with a quite wide range of 1.0500-1.0720. It should be kept in mind that on Friday 2 December the US employment data change (NFP) will be published, which is usually accompanied by significant dollar pairs spikes;

- Forecasts for GBP/USD suggest a lateral movement of this pair with a predominance of bullish trend. Such statements are based both on the readings of the indicators (65% are for growth, 35% have taken a neutral position), and on the opinion of analysts (35% are for growth, 35% predict a decline, 30% remain neutral). As for graphical analysis on D1, it suggests that the pair has reached its local maximum, and is now expected to decline first to the level of 1.2070, and then even lower to the support of 1.1945. The nearest resistance is in 1.2495-1.2515 zone; the next resistance levels are 1.2560 and 1.2675;

- USD/JPY: The forecast for this pair is almost completely identical to the one given for the previous week. Indicators clearly show the pair's growth, with half of the oscillators indicating that the pair is overbought. 55% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4 as well, which points to respective support levels at 111.35, 110.80 and 109.80. As for the resistance levels, W1 and D1 clearly show that the pair has reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary is within the 113.80-114.85 range, whilst the lower one, 110.80, coincides with the readings of graphical analysis;

- USD/CHF: It is clear that almost 100% of indicators look upward. The analysts’ opinions are the following: 45% predict growth, 30% a decline, and 25% a lateral trend. The latter opinion is also supported by graphical analysis, which points to a sideways movement in the 1.0100-1.01900 channel. The next resistance is at 1.0200 and the support levels are at 1.0060 and 1.0000. At the same time, we can reasonably assume a high chance that this week, just as in the previous one, the pair’s behaviour will once again constitute a mirror image of that of EUR/USD.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets; they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysis pointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole week traveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;
- The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;
- Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;
- USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again test the December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possibly descend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;
- It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300. The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;
- USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggest purchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;
- Now onto USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options http://nordfx.com/
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12-16 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Last week’s forecast for EUR/USD considered a number of scenarios, all of which came true with a close to 100% accuracy.
Let us start with the fact that on December 2, when giving an interview to one of the world’s reputable financial publications, NordFX Senior Analyst John Gordon warned that, in connection with the referendum in Italy, it was likely that there would be a gap at the opening of the week's session. He also said that, despite the increased volatility, nothing close to the exchange rate jumps following Brexit would occur. This forecast proved to be true.
65% of surveyed analysts believed that the pair would once again test the end-of-year low of 2015 at the level of 1.0510. On Monday, the pair indeed fell to the 1.0505 mark. Graphical analysis specified that this might be followed by a serious rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone. And on Thursday, following the news from the ECB, the pair rose to the level of 1.0873. Then it went down to the main support line for the end of November, consistent with the indicator readings on D1, which had been suggesting a medium-term sideways trend;

- As for the behaviour of GBP/USD, there was a dispute last week between the indicators and the experts. Most of the former pointed to the north, even though they signalled that the pair was overbought. The latter insisted that the pair should go down at least to the level of 1.2510. They turned out to be closer to the truth. Despite the slight increase in the pair at the beginning of the week, starting Tuesday it abruptly went down - by Friday it had lost more than 200 points;
- The main forecast for USD/JPY was based on the fact that the pair would continue fluctuations within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In general, this version proved to be correct, with some predominance of bullish sentiment towards the end of the week;
- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 voted for the pair's drop to at least the level of 1.0000. On Thursday, as predicted, the pair fell to the 1.0020 mark. After completing the task, it seemed to have decided to appease the remaining 30% of analysts, who spoke of a sideways trend, and rose first to the lower border (1.0070) and then to the top border (1.0200) of the aforementioned channel.

***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, most indicators are actively advocating the sale of this pair even though on H4 25% of them say it is oversold. The analysts are divided along the following lines: 50% believe in the pair’s upward rebound, 35% support a continuation of the downward trend, and the remaining 15% vote for its lateral movement. Graphical analysis, as it often happens, points to a compromise. According to its readings, the pair may first rebound to the 1.0650 resistance and then continue to the south - first to the 1.0510 support and then, perhaps, even further to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 vicinity. At the same time, we must note that a decision by the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate is pending on Wednesday 14 December, and if it is finally increased, it could significantly strengthen the dollar against other world currencies;
- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, some 60% of experts believe that the pair will go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, a number of indicators say it is oversold. Thus, it can be assumed that the pair will stay in a lateral channel within 1.2550-1.2700 for a while. Both indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this;
- USD/JPY. Most likely, for the first half of the week the pair will try to stay within the boundaries of the horizontal corridor, which it first entered two weeks ago. Its more distant future, as mentioned above, will be determined by the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates, in anticipation of which the bullish sentiment will continue to dominate. The support levels are 114.40, 113.10, 112.00. The resistance levels are at 116.70 and 118.70;
- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and most indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair will continue to grow. The 2015 maximum (1.0300) is hailed as the target. After it is reached, according to graphical analysis readings, the pair may once again fall into the 1.0050-1.0115 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for
19 - 23 December 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been almost 100% correct for all four pairs:
- The final forecast for the EUR/USD pair last week was as follows: first a rebound to the resistance at 1.0650 and then a drop to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 area. It also suggested a strengthening of the downward trend in the event the US Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates. This forecast can be considered fulfilled almost completely. At the beginning of the week, as expected, the pair rose to the level of 1.0650 and then made several attempts to break higher, but was unable to overcome the 1.0670 bar. The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 14th December delivered the expected strengthening of the dollar, and the pair initially fell to the level of 1.0470 and then even lower to 1.0366. The pair reached 1.0449 by the end of the week’s session;
- The forecast for GBP/USD stated that the pair would stay in the sideways channel of 1.2550-1.2700 for some time in the beginning of the week. It would then go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. That was what actually ended up happening, allowing for a standard sway of 25 points;
- With regard to USD/JPY, a rather quiet start of the week dominated by slight bullish sentiment was assumed. Then, after the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we assumed a rise to the resistance at 118.70. This prediction proved to be correct, and on Thursday, 15th December, the pair reached a height of 118.66 before proceeding to move sideways, finishing the week in the 117.90 zone;
- The forecast for USD/CHF has not been disappointing either. According to most experts, graphical analysis, and indicators on H4 and D1, the pair was supposed to revisit the 2015 maximum of 1.0300. That is what it did, even managing to exceed the expectations of the task by reaching a height of 1.0343.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- A few months ago, we published the opinions of a number of experts suggesting that EUR/USD would seek to achieve an exchange rate parity of 1.0000 in the upcoming year (2017). It seems that this forecast is coming true. At least 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 believe that in the near future the pair will continue to fall at least to the 1.0300-1.0350 area. It is worth noting that the pair has fallen so low that, when determining the support level, it is necessary to work not just with the data for the last two years, but also with that from 1997-2003.
An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 40% of experts and the numerous oscillators, which indicate that the pair has been oversold. According to their forecast, the pair has reached its local minimum, so in the foreseeable future will be moving in a sideways channel with a Pivot Point of 1.0500;

- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, 60% of experts and the majority of indicators support the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. At the same time, graphical analysis clarifies that the pair may stay in a sideways corridor within 1.2360-1.2560 for some more time before the decline. It should be noted, however, that when giving a medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the pair should sink to the level of 1.2100;
- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators point northwards. However, a third of the oscillators indicates the pair has been overbought. Graphical analysis points to a possible downwards rebound as well, naming 115.45, 114.80 and 113.90 as support levels. As for the experts, 30% of them believe that the pair will grow to a height of 120.00. The majority, though, expect a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 118.00;
- USD/CHF. More than half of the experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above 1.0300, the main resistance being 1.0410. Graphical analysis on D1 and 95% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this point of view. The main support is 1.0200, with the next one being at 1.0150.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 26-30 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Giving the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 pointed out that the pair should continue to fall to the 1.0300-1.0350 area at the very least. That was indeed what happened: on Monday the pair descended drastically and hit 1.0351 the next day, short of the intended target by just 1 point. Evidently deciding that it fulfilled its task, the pair rebounded and returned to the values of the beginning of the week;
- The forecast for the GBP/USD pair may also be considered fulfilled by at least 90%, if not 100%. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. This was reached by the pair on Thursday. After this, the support changed roles, becoming resistance. The pair rebounded off it and subsequently fell by 50 points;
- USD/JPY. Here, one third of oscillators and graphical analysis suggested a possible downwards rebound of the pair. As for the analysts, most foresaw a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 118.00. The fact that the pair was overbought did indeed push it down at the very start of the week’s session. Then, having rebounded off the level of 116.55 as was expected by the experts, it returned to the 118.00 zone and shifted to a slightly bear-dominated lateral movement of diminishing amplitude;
- USD/CHF. Here, more than half of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, and 95% indicators on H4 and D1, suggested that the pair would try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0300. However, it seems that the proximity of the Christmas holidays weakened the strength of bulls so significantly, that having reached the height of 1.0320, the pair almost immediately turned around and returned to the values of Monday, where it stayed until the end of the week.
***
The forecast for the upcoming week - the last one before the New Year:
The market’s major players have already summed up the year, and most analysts have already left for Christmas. Therefore, the forecast for this festive week is based mainly on technical analysis. No major events that could shake the financial markets, are expected in the coming days, and traders can expect a very quiet and relaxing five days ahead. Unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.
- The medium-term forecast that analysts released last week does not give a clear picture of the future of EUR/USD: 35% of them predict an upward trend, 40% a downward trend, and 25% a side movement. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators, all of them point eastwards. Those on D1, on the other hand, indicate to the south. Based on the above, we can assume that next week the pair will move in a sideways channel in the 1.0350-1.0520 range. As for its further decline, it is necessary to take into account that at present the pair is near the bottom border of the side corridor, which was launched back in February-March 2015, and that any future strengthening of the dollar will largely depend on the actions of team of the US President elect, Donald Trump;

- In contrast to the European currency, analysts consider the British pound’s future to be more definite. Thus, in the medium term, 65% of them support a fall in GBP/USD down to the October low of 1.1940, and only 5% expect the pair's growth. 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with the majority of experts. However, on a shorter timeframe - specifically H4 - the forecast for the coming week includes a flat trend in the 1.2215-1.2325 range. The next resistance is at 1.2375;
- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators on D1 point northwards, with which their colleagues on H4 disagree, indicating the pair to be oversold. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4, which sketches a decline of the pair to 115.50, followed by a rebound the previous week’s values in the 117.50 zone. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it foresees a lateral channel with support at 116.50 (should that be ruptured the new support will be 115.50) and resistance at 119.00. Here we can mention the upcoming speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday, 26 December - that is unlikely to seriously influence the behaviour of this pair;
- Opinions on the future of USD/CHF tend mostly towards the pair’s growth to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. This point of view is shared not only by three-quarters of analysts, but also by indicators on H4 and D1, as well as by graphical analysis using a daily time-frame. An alternative view is supported by 25% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should once again test the December low at 1.0000.
The next forecast will be devoted to the events of the first week of January. Dear colleagues, it seems, therefore, that now would be the time to wish you a Happy New Year!
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 02-06 January 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– We know that "thin" market and low liquidity in the pre New Year's week can work wonders. For the first half of the week the EUR/USD pair, as expected, remained in a slow sideways trend. Then on Wednesday, it slumped 100 points. On Thursday it played back what it lost. Then, the beginning of the Asian session on Friday presented the traders a "New Year" surprise - in just one hour, for no apparent reason, the pair made a sharp leap upwards and hit 1.0655, after which it returned to the levels of support of the second half of November;
–The forecast for GBP/USD predicted the pair's movement in the side channel in the range of 1.2215-1.2325. 1.2375 was identified as the week's high. In general, this forecast proved to be correct - for the whole week the pair oscillated in the range 1.2200-1.2305, and on Friday, breaking through the upper boundary of the corridor, it reached the height of 1.2385;
– For USD/JPY, graphical analysis on D1 anticipated the movement of the pair in the channel 116.50-119.00, whilst H4 suggested the channel 115.50-117.50. It turned out that the first was right in determining the local minimum - 116.30, and the latter was right regarding the maximum - 117.80;
– USD/CHF. Here, 75% of experts, supported by indicators H4 and D1 and technical analysis on the daily time frame, voted for the pair to grow to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. By the middle of the week, it actually did rise to the height of 1.0320. The remaining 25% of experts expected a decline of the pair to the December low at 1.0000, and on Friday, mirror copying the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair rushed down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.0059.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of a number of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– The consensus of analysts in the first week of the New Year can be called unique - 100% voted for the fall of the EUR/USD and its return to the zone 1.0350-1.04800, Pivot Point at 1.0430. Graphical analysis and oscillators on the D1 agree with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it does not rule out that prior to falling, the pair may attempt to re-test the 1.0655 high of December 30;
– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expect the movement of the pair southwards - to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version as well. But as for a shorter time frame, H4, the picture is diametrically opposite - in the short term technical analysis points to a possible growth of the pair to the resistance 1.2380 and further - to a height of 1.2500;
– USD/JPY. The vast majority of indicators (70%) have taken a neutral position. Readings of graphical analysis on H4 can be called neutral as well, they point to a sideways trend in the range of 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. 80% of analysts are also on the bulls' side. An alternative view is represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair must first go down to the 114.75 support and only then rush to the height of 118.65. In case of breaking down, the next support level is at 113.10;
– Most likely, next week the USD/CHF pair will continue to mirror the movement of EUR/USD. That is why 100% of experts predict it to rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area. As for technical analysis, as it often happens, the indicators on H4 and D1 have occupied opposite positions. Whilst analysis on D1 supports the analysts, on H4, oscillators, trend indicators as well as graphical analysis indicate the pair's drive toward the 1.0000 mark.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 09-13 January 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– Recall that in the first week of the New Year analysts demonstrated a unique consensus: 100% believed that the EUR/USD would fall to the 1.0350-1.04800 area. They turned out to be 100% correct. On Monday the pair crept up to the level of 1.0480, and on Tuesday, having mobilized all their forces, the bears blitzed to the south and literally dropped the pair to the 1.3400 mark. However, this task proved to be exhausting and the bulls were able to not only win back the lost positions, but also return the pair to the Pivot Point of the last eight weeks of 2016 in the 1.0525 area;

– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expected a southward movement of the pair to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. The pair rushed down straight away on Monday. However, after failing to break the 1.2200 support, it made a meteoric rise of 230 points, followed by a no less dizzying drop of 170 points and eventually finished the week at 1.2275, the place where it spent most of the last ten days of December;

– For USD/JPY, 80% of analysts, supported by 70% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, assumed a sideways trend within 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. They turned out to be right - for the whole first half of the week, the pair moved exactly like that, reaching the height of 118.60 on Tuesday. An alternative view was represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to first go down to the support at 114.75, which is what happened, but only on Friday. Having felt the local minimum at 115.05, it rebounded upwards and the week ended in the same place where it began: in the 117.00 zone;

– USD/CHF. The forecast for this pair was absolutely correct as well. Recall that 100% of experts predicted its rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area, and on Tuesday the pair obediently reached the height of 1.0334. As for technical analysis, both oscillators and trend indicators as well as graphical analysis on H4 indicated the pair's strive to the 1.0000 mark. As a result, the rise was followed by a sharp descent of 250 points. However, the pair didn't manage to reach the level of 1.0000, and having turned around at 1.0086, like USD / JPY, returned to the values of the beginning of the week.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

– Speaking about the near future for the EUR/USD, 60% of analysts believe that the level of 1.0525 should become the resistance for the pair, fighting from which the pair will occasionally go down to the 1.0350 support zone. The 1.0400 horizon should become a Pivot Point in this side channel. Having said that, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude that, before going down, the pair can try again to climb to the height of 1.0650 at the start of the week.
It should also be borne in mind that certain adjustments in the formation of the medium-term trends can be made by the ECB meeting, press conference by Donald Trump in the middle of the week and the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the end of the week. As for the long-term outlook, most analysts expect the pair to decrease by the end of 2017 to the level of 1.0000 and even below parity, to 0.9000;

– Regarding the behaviour of GBP/USD, there is no consensus either among experts or among trend indicators and oscillators. About one third of them vote for an increase, a third support a fall and the rest believe the pair will move to the east. When it comes to the readings of graphical analysis, on D1 it points to the side corridor in the range of 1.2270-1.2430 for this week. If it succeeds in breaking the upper border of the channel, the pair may rise by another 100 points: to the level of 1.2530. As for the forecast for the coming months, about 70% of experts vote for the decline of the pair to last year's lows in the area of 1.1950-1.2000;

– USD/JPY. As the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a similar direction in monetary policy, the behaviour of this pair will largely depend on the actions of the new US administration. That is why, as in the case with the GBP/USD, it is impossible to compile some sort of consensus from analysts opinions. However, in the medium term bullish sentiment prevails associated with the strengthening of the dollar and the pair’s efforts to reach 120.00 and beyond. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it suggests a movement of the pair in the 115.00-118.60 channel, and on D1 it does not preclude its temporary decline to the 113.00 area;

– Finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. Despite the discord of indicators more inclined to sell, the vast majority of experts (75%) believe that the pair will eventually go up to the 1.2000-1.3000 area and even higher - to the December highs at the height of 1.3400. The reason for such expectations is understandable. Namely, it is the strengthening of the dollar due to Trump administration's actions and interest rate hikes planned by the US Fed in 2017.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

10 Threats to European Currencies
2016 has been marked by a number of events that strongly affected financial markets. First and foremost is, of course, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as US President, as well as persistent rumours of a possible disintegration of the European Union, which have seriously changed the balance of forces in the struggle of major world currencies.
So what should be expected from the pound, dollar, euro and yen in the new 2017?

With respect to the European currency, the forecasts look rather pessimistic. Referring to the European Central Bank (ECB) data, The Wall Street Journal estimates that capital outflows from the euro area reached their highest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999, and the currency itself has updated 13 years’ lows.
According to analysts, chances of an ECB interest rate increase do not exist, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not only lifted the rate by 0.25% in mid-December 2016, but also foresees three other similar increases throughout 2017.
Citigroup specialists expect the US currency to continue to grow. Further to that, the bank's strategist Todd Elmer said in an interview with Bloomberg: “We might see a much more rapid appreciation of the dollar than many in the market expect." The reason for this, in the first place, lies in the fact that the Fed will raise rates at a faster pace than initially expected. The head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has noted that the rise in rates is a sign of confidence in the American economy, and that the Fed will take into account a possible increase in tax incentives promised by President Trump.
"It is possible,” says the leading analyst of the NordFX brokerage company John Gordon, “that in the context of the events that may occur in Europe, Brexit will seem like a nuisance. For some reason, only the upcoming elections in Germany and France and the migrant crisis are usually talked about when listing risks. But in fact, the list of threats that the euro faces is far from exhausted by them. I can name at least another six or seven.”
“Someone has decided all of a sudden that the economic crisis in Greece reached its peak in the summer of 2015. But this is not true – it suffices to say that at the end of 2016, the tax debt of Greek residents reached an astronomical figure for the country of 94.2 billion euros. It is quite probable that this will very soon 100 billion, while there is no reason to expect opposite, positive dynamics.”
“Financial problems similar to the Greek ones can be seen in Italy and Spain. Only, unlike the Greek case, they are intensified by separatist sentiments amongst some parts of the respective populations in these countries. Recall the December referendum in Italy or the tension between the Madrid and the Catalan authorities in Spain.”
“Let's add to this the rise of the extreme right in Austria, the discontent with the migration policy in Hungary and the worsening of relations between Turkey and Europe, on the back of which President Erdogan has once again started to build up relations with Russia.”
“Only when we add to all this the local or parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for this year in a number of EU countries,” continues the NordFX analyst, “do we start realising what hard times are coming up for the EU as a whole and the euro in particular."
“If a few months ago major currency players retained some optimism about the future of the euro, now many of them have already revised their forecasts downwards.”
According to the British firm IHS Markit, the euro will reach parity with the dollar by the end of 2017. Royal Bank of Scotland analysts agree with this view. Due to the extension of the ECB's program to buy € 80 billion assets a month, they say, the EUR/USD pair will be able to stay in the range of 1.00-1.10. But the major investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast below parity, from 1.00 to 0.90.
If we talk about the British currency, despite the Brexit (or indeed because of it), its future looks more optimistic than that of euro.
JPMorgan bankers believe that the rate of GBP may increase or decrease by 5-10%, depending on the UK government's actions with respect to accessing the single market. “The pound is facing periodic bouts of volatility and may change direction several times depending on political decisions,” says Paul Meggyesi of JP Morgan. As for the forecast, the bank's experts believe that the GBP / USD pair will be in the area of 1.26 by the end of 2017.
The currency strategists from ANZ Bank and ABN Amro believe that the pound will be weaker against the dollar, but will strengthen its position relative to the euro. “This is because”, says the ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele, “the political uncertainty in the euro area will put pressure on the euro across the board. Brexit is no longer the centre of attention in the financial markets, so the pound is likely to be relatively stable.”
The USD/JPY pair, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, will be traded in the range of 110-120 throughout 2017, as the Bank of Japan will maintain monetary policy parameters stable and will continue to keep the yield on 10-year bonds (JGB) near zero. As for the experts from IHS Markit, they believe that thanks to the strengthening of the dollar, the pair will reach the 126 mark.
"The actions of Trump's administration and rate hikes by the Fed,” says John Gordon of NordFX, “will lead to the unwinding of inflation and the weakening of the national currency in a number of countries that are dependent on the US Dollar." At the same time, according to Bloomberg, the Russian rouble looks very promising for investors in 2017 when we consider emerging markets. According to the UBS Group AG estimates, the return on investment of the rouble on the carry trade strategy will be 26%, and this will be the best result among the markets of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
The list of attractive countries less dependent on the risks associated with the actions of the USA also includes Mexico, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, India and Indonesia.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 16-20 January 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The behaviour of the EUR/USD pair did not deliver any surprises in the first half of the week. First, as predicted by graphical analysis, it attempted to climb to the height of 1.0650. Having almost reached the intended target (1.0627), the pair reversed and, following the forecast of most analysts, it began to descend to the 1.0350-1.0525 zone. The trend was then altered by the ECB meeting, the press conference by Donald Trump, and the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney. Those events led the pair to return to the level of 1.0625 and then rise another 50 points to the height of 1.0685, once it had kicked off from the level of 1.0453;

- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair both experts and indicators were divided into three roughly equal groups: one third of them believed it would fall, one third believed it would grow, and the remainder believed the pair would move eastwards. The pair ended up fulfilling all these wishes: first it went down to the level of 1.2035, and then, reacting to the events listed above, it rose to the height of 1.2316 and eventually finished the week midway between these two values - in the area that has been acting as a support level during the first two weeks of January;

- In the case of the USD/JPY, analysts just shrugged their shoulders, anticipating the release of news from the US. As for graphical analysis, following the readings on H4, the pair fell to the lows of the previous week in the 115.05-115.20 area. After a short respite it rushed further down, which had been predicted by graphical analysis on D1. It reached a local bottom at 113.75;

- Recall that the opinions of experts and technical analysis on the behaviour of the USD/CHF pair were geometrically opposed. The former predicted its growth to the values of 1.0200-1.0300, and the pair went up exactly to the middle of this zone: 1.0247. The latter were, for the most part, inclined to sell it, and by the end of the week the pair fell to a level that was approximately 100 points lower than where it was at the start.

***
Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Regarding the near future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts, supported by indicators on H4, believe that the pair may rise to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. An alternative view is represented by 40% of experts, graphical analysis on W1 and 90% of oscillators. According to them, the pair will strive towards the support in the area of 1.0480-1.0510, and then even further to the December lows at 1.0350–1.0370. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude the possibility that before going down, the pair may once again try to climb to the height of 1.0650, which would happen at the start of the week.

- As for the behaviour of the GBP/USD pair, experts still cannot come to an agreement. About half of them are backing the bulls, believing that the pair will move to northwards. Graphical analysis agrees with this view of events as well, with H4 drawing the corridor of 1.2100-1.2315 for the pair. D1 sets targets that are even more ambitious, being in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. The remaining 50% of experts, as well as trend indicators and oscillators, disagree with such a forecast, believing that the pair should test the second support zone of 1.2000-1.2035;

- USD/JPY. When it comes to forecasting the next few days, the majority of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair has not yet reached the local minimum in the area of 113.00. In the medium term, the picture is quite different - about 70% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and indicators on W1 vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the rise of the pair to the resistance at 118.65. In the case of a breakthrough through this resistance, they believe the pair will rise even higher to the 121.00 level;

- We can observe a pattern similar to the one for USD/JPY with USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 strongly advise to sell the pair, believing that it will reach the 0.9950-1.0000 area. As for the medium term, the forecast remains the same: the vast majority of experts (75%), with the full support of technical and graphical analysis, are convinced that the pair will eventually rise again to the 1.0200-1.0300 area or even higher: to the December highs at 1.0340.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 23-27 January 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- The main forecast for the EUR/USD pair had said that early in the week the pair could rise to 1.0685 or even higher to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. This is what happened in reality. By just Tuesday, the pair reached the 1.0720 level, before returning 130 points downwards and jumping back up again, finishing the week near the 1.0700 mark;
- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair, 50% of the experts predicted its movement to the north and graphical analysis indicated a target in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. This turned out to be 100% correct. In the first half of the week, the pair did the seemingly impossible: inspired by the speeches of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney and the British Prime Minister T. May, as well as by optimistic indicators of the economy of this island state, the pair leapt upwards by 430 points and returned to the strong level support/resistance of the last four months in the 1.2385-1.2415 zone;
- In the case of USD/JPY, most experts and indicators on H4 and D1 had expected the pair to descend to a local minimum in the area of 113.00, after which it had been expected to turn around and go north. In reality, the pair surpassed these expectations, marking the minimum as 45 points lower than predicted at the level of 112.56. This was followed by the scheduled rebound and the pair returned to the 114.60 mark, to the upper boundary of the February-March 2016 corridor;
- USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 had strongly advised to sell the pair, believing that it would definitely reach the 0.9950-1.0000 zone. Those traders who followed this advice, were able to profit considerably. Mirroring the movements of EUR/USD, the pair recorded the minimum at the level of 0.9995 on Tuesday.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- It is clear that, speaking of the near future of EUR/USD, the vast majority (80%) of trend indicators look northwards. Meanwhile, one third of the oscillators indicates that the pair is overbought. About 60% of analysts together with graphical analysis on D1 expect it to descend to the level of 1.0500. After that, in their view, the pair will be able to return to the 1.0650 resistance;
- A similar picture emerges with respect to the behaviour of the GBP/USD as well. Most indicators on H4 vote for the growth of the pair, whilst on D1 they do not exclude the beginning of a fall. 65% of experts are also in agreement with the bears. The nearest support level is 1.2300, with the next one being 1.2200. The bottom is in the area of the minimum of October 2016 at 1.1950-1.2000. As for graphical analysis, it draws a corridor with a relatively large range on D1, the low being 1.2000 and the high being1.2420. The next resistance is 1.2550;
- USD/JPY. Trend indicators in this case, have taken a neutral position. The readings of oscillators differ: on H4 they insist on buying, and on D1 they insist on selling. There is no unity among the experts and graphical analysis either. The majority of the former (60%), insist that the pair will go up to the 116.00-117.50 area. The latter, both on H4 and D1, believe that it must first once again test the January lows of 113.00 and 112.55;
- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 75% of the experts along with graphical analysis expect a sideways trend within 0.9995-1.0200. An alternative view sees the pair going down to the level of 0.9900. However, this can only happen in the event of any significant economic or political developments in the EU and the USA, which are not expected next week.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 30 January - 3 February 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The majority of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 had expected the EUR/USD pair to decline to the 1.0500 level and then to return to its Pivot Point at 1.0650. However, the pair stayed within a narrow side corridor 1.0710-1.0775 for almost the entire week and it was only on Thursday that it went down. At the same time the decline was quite small and, having found a local bottom in the Pivot Point area 1.0657, the pair turned around and went back to where it started the week, to the level of 1.0695;

- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair, only 35% of experts and indicators on H4 had supported its growth, although they did turn out to be right. As for graphical analysis, it had not ruled out growth of the pair to the level of 1.2550 on D1, where the pair actually finished the week after reaching the height of 1.2673;

- USD/JPY finished the week-long session at the Pivot Point level of January in the 115.60 zone. Talking about its movement within the week, the forecast given by 40% of analysts supported by oscillators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, proved correct. Recall, they had insisted that the pair should once again test the January lows of 113.00 and 112.55, which is what ended up happening;

- USD/CHF. Most experts along with graphical analysis had expected a sideways trend from the pair, and the pair did move east obediently for the whole week in a narrow range, having kept within 0.9960-1.0025.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Speaking about the near future of EUR/USD, the vast majority (70%) of experts continue to expect the pair to decline to the level of 1.0600 and further to the area of 1.0500. As for technical analysis, the findings of oscillators differ: one would need to sell the pair if they follow H4, and to buy on D1. 15% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 also talk about buying, indicating the height of 1.0775 as the target and the next resistance level as 1.0890. The remaining 15% of experts, together with trend indicators, have taken a neutral position;
- A similar picture emerges with respect to the behaviour of GBP/USD. The majority of experts (55%) and the indicators on H4 expect the pair to initially fall to the support at 1.2415, and then further on to 1.2255. As for the remaining analysts, indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4, they suggest that the pair will first reach resistance in the 1.2730-1.2775 zone. Only then will it start descending southwards. The next resistance to which graphic analysis on D1 indicates is located at the level of 1.2875;

- The opinions of the experts on the future of the USD/JPY are almost equally divided: 30% expect its growth, 40% expect it to fall and 30% take a neutral position. Trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis on D1 also remain neutral. But their "colleagues" on H4 are set to purchase. The Pivot Point is 115.12. The nearest resistance is 115.60, with the subsequent levels being 116.35 and 117.00. The support levels are at 114.40, 113.85 and 112.50. Regarding the medium-term forecast, it should be noted that about 70% of analysts expect the pair to grow;
- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, all 100% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to stay in such a narrow sideways channel for the second week in a row. However, the views differ as to where it will go: 35% expect its growth, 65% believe it will fall. Indicators also tend to believe it will fall to the 0.9900 zone. But graphical analysis both on H4 and on D1 shows that a correction may take place before the downwards trend continues, implying that the pair may rise to the resistance in the 1.0085-1.0100 area;
- Summing up our weekly review, it is important to remember that the upcoming week will be filled with numerous events, which traditionally attract the attention of currency traders. To be precise, a decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates is expected on Tuesday, 31 January, a similar decision by the US Federal Reserve is expected on Wednesday, 1 February, and the Bank of England is expected to announce its decision on Thursday, 2 February. In addition, at the end of the week on Friday, 3 February the ECB will hold a meeting, important economic data from China will be published, and employment data (NFP) from the United States will be released.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 06 - 10 February 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Despite the fact that the past week was filled with important economic events, it failed to deliver any big surprises. The uptrend of the pair EUR/USD, the start of which was precisely on New Year's night 2017 (clearly visible on D1) was continued. Most experts expected the pair to decline to the rising channel's lower border in the area of 1.0600 and possibly to break through it. However, having descended to 1.0620, the pair could not penetrate the support and went up, ending the week where analysis on H4 predicted: precisely at the intersection of the centre line of the ascending channel and the strong resistance level of 1.0780;

- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, most analysts and indicators on H4 expected it to fall to the support 1.2415. It was already Tuesday when the pair recorded a local minimum at 1.2412. Afterwards, it turned northwards. However, by Thursday the trend had changed again and, following the Bank of England announcements, the pair fell down, losing 250 points in one and a half days;

- Recall that experts' opinions on the future of USD/JPY were almost evenly divided: 30% of them expected its growth, 40% expected it to fall and 30% took a neutral position. However, the relatively larger collective weight of the bears (by just 10%), apparently tipped the pair over, and the pair rushed downwards right from the beginning of the weekly session, easily breaking through the 113.95 Pivot Point of the side channel which was launched in mid-January, and ended the week at its lower border in the area of 112.50;

- The forecast for the USD/CHF pair came true with an accuracy close to 100%. The vast majority of experts, supported by indicators, expected it to fall to the 0.9900 zone. At the same time graphical analysis warned that a correction might follow before the down trend continued, and the pair would rise to the 1.0085 area. That is what happened: on Monday, the pair reached the upper border of the descending channel (1.0045), and then went to the south, ending the week at the level of 0.9920.
***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Speaking about the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority (65%) of experts believe that the target of the medium-term uptrend has not been reached yet, and the pair should rise to at least 1.0850-1.0870. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 agree with this. As for the indicators on H4, they have taken a neutral stance, and the graphical analysis on H4 specifies the boundaries of the side corridor: 1.0700-1.0820. It should be noted that, giving the forecast for the next month, 60% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that the pair will not be able to avoid falling to the level of 1.0500;

- Speaking about the future of GBP/USD, 55% of analysts, with the support of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, expect the sideways trend of the last two weeks to continue. According to this forecast, the bears will possess a certain degree of superiority, the main support will be at 1.2415, and the Pivot Point will be at 1.2542. It is within these limits that the pair should move inside in the coming days. As for the medium-term forecast, 60% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 side with the bears, waiting for the fall of the pair to the 1.2100-1.2200 zone;

- The opinion of indicators both on H4 and on D1 unequivocally sides with the growth of the USD/JPY pair. But there is no such unity among analysts - only half of them agree with the indicators regarding the coming week. However, in the medium term, the number of growth supporters increases to 75%. The graphical analysis sides with the latter, according to its readings the local minimum for the pair is in the zone 112.07-112.50 and after reaching it, the pair should set out to conquer the peaks of the North. The resistance levels are at 116.70 and at 118.70;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 65% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 are confident that having rebounded from the support in the 0.9870-0.9900 area, the pair should rise and return to the symbolic mark around 1.0000. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1. In their view, the pair may fall even further downwards and enter a period of lateral movement in the 0.9750-0.9870 corridor. The next support is 0.9670.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 13 - 17 February 2017

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved almost 100% accurate:

- As it often happens, the medium-term forecast jumps ahead of the short-term one. Thus, in the case of EUR/USD, we saw the breakdown of the January uptrend’ lower boundary somewhat earlier than the experts had expected. However, the bears’ victory was predicted by experts with absolute precision - traders who had opened positions to sell received serious profits, as the pair lost almost 200 points during the week and designated a local bottom at 1.0607, the area of a very strong support / resistance level, which existed since November 2016;

- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, the majority of analysts, with the support of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, expected it to continue the sideways trend of the last two weeks. This forecast proved to be 100% correct. The speculation that the bears would have a certain advantage turned out to be true as well, it was under their pressure that the pair managed to break the very important support level of 1.2410, however briefly, and as a result, finished the week exactly where it started - in the 1.2485 zone;

- Expert opinion regarding the future of USD/JPY implied a short-term decline of the pair, after which it was supposed to turn around and conquer the peaks of the north. The heights of 113.45 and 113.95 were named as those peaks. Everything happened exactly according to the forecast: in the beginning of the week, the pair dropped slightly, and then rushed upwards, reaching the height of 113.85 on Friday (short of the second of these goals by just a meagre 10 points);

- The forecast for USD/CHF came true with an accuracy close to 100%. The vast majority of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, were confident that, rebounding off from the 0.9870-0.9900 support area, the pair would go up and return to the milestone of 1.0000. All of this happened, and as a result the pair ended the week’s session at the level of 1.0020.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Predicting the future of EUR / USD, only 20% of experts, graphical analysis on D1, and a third of oscillators point to it being oversold, supporting the growth of the pair to the height of 1.0850-1.0870. 60% of analysts and most indicators are confident in the continuation of the downwards trend and decline of the pair to the 1.0500 zone. However, the remaining 20% of experts believe that for some time the pair may move in a sideways channel in the 1.0590-1.0715 range. It should be noted that certain adjustments in the formation of the trend could be made after the ECB meeting on Wednesday February 15 and the summit of EU leaders on February 17;

- A similar pattern is observed for GBP/USD. Here 60% of analysts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators are on the side of the bears. According to their forecast, the pair must first go down to the level of 1.2410 and then to 1.2350. The next support zone will be at 1.2200. At the same time, a third of experts and graphical analysis on H4 do not exclude that, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.2350, the pair will then proceed to a sideways movement in the 1.2350-1.2550 range;

- Opinions of both analysts and technical analysis on the future of USD/JPY are very vague. The experts are divided into two almost equal camps: 50% support the growth of the pair and 50% foresee a fall. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a sideways trend in the rather wide range of 111.65-114.00. Meanwhile, in the medium term almost 70% of analysts expect the strengthening of the dollar. In their opinion, the pair is sure to rise above the 115.00 horizon;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 100% of experts, graphical analysis, and the absolute majority of indicators look northwards, pointing to 1.0100 as the main target. There is some concern here, however, which is caused by the readings of just one third of oscillators: they signal that this pair is overbought and can possibly return to the 0.9960 support level.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 20-24 February 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that when predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of analysts, supported by indicators, voted in favour of the continuation of the downtrend and the decline of the pair to the 1.0500 zone. That was what happened: for the entire first half of the week the pair moved southwards, reaching the horizon of 1.0520. Then, helped by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, whose speech was called boring by some, the pair reversed and rose by 150 points. Then the bulls' strength was exhausted, and, having lost 70 points, the pair finished the week almost where it started: in the vicinity of a strong medium-term support / resistance level in the 1.0610 area;

- The forecast for GBP/USD also came almost entirely true. Here, the bears were supported not just by analysts and indicators, but also by graphical analysis. According to their shared opinion, the pair was supposed to initially go down to 1.2410 and then to 1.2350. At the same time, one third of experts suggested that, reaching the bottom at 1.2350, the pair would then proceed to a sideways movement in the 1.2350-1.2550 range. If you look at the chart, it is clear that all that has ended up, albeit with a permissible sway of 20-25 points;

- The opinion of both analysts, and technical analysis on the behaviour of USD/JPY was very vague last week. However, almost 70% of experts claimed that in the medium term, the pair would go up to 115.00. This is exactly what the pair did, although it did so earlier than expected: it had already reached the height of 114.95 on Wednesday. Then, just like the euro/dollar, it returned to this year's strong support/resistance level in the 112.60 area;

- The forecast for USD/CHF was also very accurate and 100% confirmed the unanimous opinion of 100% of analysts and technical analysis. Mirroring the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair reached the goal, the height of 1.0100, in the middle of the week and then proceeded to the milestone level of 1.0000.
***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The next week's economic calendar is not marked by any particularly important event. Perhaps that is why expert opinions on the behaviour of EUR/USD are almost equally divided: one third predict the growth of the pair, another third predict a lateral trend and the last third suggest its fall. The latter are actively supported by graphical analysis on H4. According to this analysis, the pair should once again test the bottom at 1.0500, after which it may turn and rise to the resistance of 1.0850. As for the medium-term forecast, the picture is quite different: more than 70% of analysts actively supported by trend indicators and oscillators on D1 predict the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The parity zone at the level of 1.0000 is named as a key target;

- A similar pattern is observed for GBP/USD. Here, 65% analysts, graphical analysis and more than 90% of indicators stand on the side of the bears. According to their forecast, the pair is expected to fall to the lower bound of the major side corridor 1.1985-1.2720, where it has been located ever since October 2016. For this to happen, however, it first has to overcome support at the level of the central line of the channel, which is 1.2345. This could delay its descent for a few days. In this case, a rebound of the pair to the resistance of 1.2550 is possible;

- The opinions of analysts and indicators about the future of USD/JPY have radically diverged. Whilst the former expect the pair to grow, the latter are confident that it will fall. The compromise option is the side corridor in the 112.40-115.00 range, this view being offered by graphical analysis on D1. The next support will be at 111.60, and the resistance will be 116.50;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, both experts and technical analysis expect a strengthening of the bearish sentiment and the transition of the pair to a sideways trend in the 0.9960-1.0050 channel. In the event it breaks the lower border of the channel, it is possible that the pair will go down to the 0.9870-0.9900 area. As for the medium-term objectives, 75% of analysts still expect the pair to rise to the height of 1.0330.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 27 February - 03 March 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that, when giving the medium-term forecast more than 70% of analysts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR/USD. They were actively supported by trend indicators and oscillators on D1. As for the weekly forecast, according to graphical analysis, the pair was expected to once again test the minimum at the level of 1.0500, and then turn around and start a sharp ascent. Those traders who made use of these findings were able to get a good profit. Exactly by the middle of the week the pair found the local bottom at 1.0493, which was followed by its northwards rebound. However, the pair did not reach the expected horizon of 1.0850, but those 125 points, for which it went up, managed to deliver the bulls a significant profit;

- The forecast for GBP/USD warned that if the pair failed to overcome the support at the centre line of the large-scale side corridor, where it had been residing since October 2016, its rebound to the resistance at 1.2550 was possible. Things played out exactly like that: after failing in several attempts to break the level of 1.2400, the pair rose and spent the first half of Friday in the 1.2540-1.2565 area, before retreating to the Pivot Point of the last three weeks in the area of 1.2450;

- The opinions of analysts and indicators about the future of USD/JPY radically diverged last week. If the former had expected the pair to rise, the latter were determined that it would fall. Both appeared to be right. At first, the pair rose by 100 points. It then proceeded to drop by 165 points, returning to the values of the end of January/ beginning of February this year and vindicating the ambiguity of the latest forecasts in the process;

- USD/CHF. As is often the case, last week this pair chose not to play its own "game" and simply mirrored the behaviour of the EUR/USD, confirming the confidence of the market that the dollar will strengthen. As a result, by the middle of the week the pair reached a height of 1.0140, after which the bulls’ strength weakened and it completed the week’s session near the strong support level of 1.0075, which is easily visible on the D1 and W1 charts.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- 75% of experts believe that EUR/USD will fall to the 1.0340 zone, where it had already been in December 2016, if not next week then certainly in March. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 agree with this forecast. As for short-term forecasts, the oscillators on H4 have taken a neutral position, and graphical analysis indicates a possible temporary rise to the resistance of 1.0680;

- GBP/USD. 65% of analysts are still siding with the bears here. According to their forecast, the pair still has to fall to the lower boundary of a five-month side corridor at 1.1985-1.2720. As for graphical analysis, it says that, seeing as the pair has failed to break through the centre line of the channel, it may now spend some time oscillating in the 1.2400-1.2720 range, after which it will still end up rushing to the January lows;

- It is clear that, in predicting the future of USD/JPY, all indicators point to the south. The main support is in the area of 111.60. However, the opinion of 70% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 is strictly opposite to the above. According to them, the pair should rise to the level of 114.00, before possibly ascending even higher to 115.60;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 70% of experts and 85% of indicators vote for the bulls’ victory and the growth of the pair to the 1.0150-1.0180 area. An alternative point of view is represented by graphical analysis, according to which, the pair is expected to move laterally dominated by bearish sentiment in the coming days, before gradually descending to 1.0000, or, potentially, even lower to the support at 0.9965.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 06 - 10 March 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- EUR/USD. Many top traders have complained, with these complaints even being audible in the media, that there is a distinct lack of clear trends for this pair. They are right: it has been impossible to identify a winner in the perennial bull-bear struggle for two continuous weeks so far. The moment it seems the former will start dominating, the pair rises to 1.0630, the situation changes and the euro weakens, dropping the pair to the support level at 1.0500. Because of this uncompleted struggle, the pair finished the week in almost the same place where it started back on February 20: at 1.0622;

- Giving the forecast for GBP/USD, most analysts sided with the bears last week. They were right. The pair really rushed southwards in attempt to reach the lower boundary of the five-month side corridor 1.1985-1.2720. Again as expected, it froze its movement near the channel's centre line, stopping just below 1.2300 on Friday evening;

- Recall that the opinions of 70% of experts and the readings of graphical analysis on the future of USD/JPY were that the pair should rise to 114.00, or even higher. This forecast can be considered almost entirely fulfilled. On Friday evening, the pair reached a height of 114.75, before rushing back to marks in 114.00 area, where it met the end of the working week;

- With regard to USD/CHF, here 70% of experts and more than 85% of indicators voted in favour of the bulls' victory and a growth of the pair to the level of 1.0150. An alternative view was put forward by graphical analysis, according to which at the beginning of the week the pair was expected to move laterally with a predominance of bearish sentiment, declining to the 1.0000 support level. That is exactly what happened: having fixed the bottom on Tuesday February 28 at 1.0000, the pair turned and rushed upwards, managing to reach the height of 1.0146 by Thursday. As for the end of the week, here a mirror imitation of EUR/USD took over and the pair fell exactly to where it had started on Monday: 1.0073.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The EUR/USD upwards jump at the end of the last week's session of more than 100 points surprised many. However, despite this, more than 70% of experts expect the dollar’s growth to continue and the pair to decline to the 1.0400 area. Graphical analysis on D1 also agrees with this development. H4, however, suggests that the pair may make another leap northwards and reach the height of 1.0680. This view is shared by the remaining quarter of analysts. It is possible that their expectations are associated with a negative forecast on the change in US employment (NFP), the data for which will be announced on Friday, 10 March. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector could decline from 227K to 170-175K;

- GBP/USD. Here, about 80% of analysts and the same proportion of trend indicators and oscillators are still siding with the bears. According to their forecast, the pair’s immediate goal is the 1.2100-1.2145 area. The opposite view is expressed by graphical analysis on H4, according to which, having reached the local bottom at 1.2200, the pair may rebound and return to the 1.2400-1.2560 zone;

- USD/JPY. The dollar is also expected to strengthen against the Japanese yen. This forecast is supported by 65% of analysts and over 80% of indicators, who believe that the pair must first climb to 116.00, before proceeding to jump upwards by another 100 points. Having said that, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that, upon meeting the resistance in the 117.00-117.50 area, the pair could turn around and descend to its current value at 114.00. This version is supported by the oscillators, some of which show that the pair is overbought;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, the forecast for it can be summarised by "To the North and only northwards!" Almost 90% of analysts and 70% of indicators on D1 support this direction. The task is to break the 1.0140 resistance and rise to 1.0210. The remaining 10% of analysts suggest a sideways trend. The number of believers in the pair’s fall seems to be zero. This zero is a particular cause for concern – such occasions often deliver traders unpleasant surprises. However, the pair will, most likely, mirror the underlying trend, set by EUR/USD.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 13 - 17 March 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Even though the ECB decided to leave the interest rate unaltered and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector in the United States remained virtually unchanged (235K vs. 238K), the bulls still managed to push EUR/USD to the goal that had been set by a quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. Recall that 1.0680 was named as a target. The pair reached it just 3 hours before the end of the week’s session, and then finished the five-day period at the level of 1.0675;

- The forecast for GBP/USD has come true with an accuracy of 100%. About 80% of the analysts and the same amount of trend indicators and oscillators sided with the bears last week. They were right in suggesting that the pair would definitely fall to the 1.2100-1.2145 area, where it turned out to be on Wednesday, 8 March, and where it spent the rest of the week with a support level at 1.2140;

- USD/JPY. Here most analysts and technical analysis predicted the pair would grow as it strove to reach the height of 116.00. As expected, the pair indeed rushed northwards. But, short of the cherished target by just 50 points, it turned around and finished at 114.75, which can be considered Pivot Point of the last four months and the top border of the side channel, in which the pair has remained for the last eight weeks;

- Regarding USD/CHF, the forecast for this pair was: "To the north and only northwards!". The pair did, starting from Monday, rush strictly upwards. However, it failed to complete the set task of breaking the resistance 1.0140 and then rise to 1.0210, having only reached the height of 1.0170. After that, the pair, following the example of EUR/USD, reversed the trend and, having turned to the south, fell to 1.0105.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- It is clear that, speaking of EUR/USD, the clear majority of indicators on H4 and D1 points to the growth of the pair. As for the larger timeframes, here the forecast changes: on W1it is neutral, and on MN strongly recommends to sell the pair. Furthermore, many oscillators on D1 show that the pair is overbought. A similar position is taken by about 85% of experts, supported by graphical analysis. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.0600 and then even lower to the lows of February and March in the 1.0500-1.0520 zone. It should be noted, however, that on Wednesday, 15 March, a lot of important news from the USA is expected, which may affect the formation of the trend;

- It is difficult to give a forecast about the behaviour of GBP/USD for the coming week. Even though more than 90% of indicators point southwards, they are supported by only 40% of experts. The greater part of them, along with graphical analysis on H4, sides with the bulls, believing that the pair has reached a local bottom and now it is expected to rebound upwards to at least the 1.2250-1.2300 resistance area. The next resistance is at 1.2385, whilst the support is 1.1985. The following important events should be noted for this pair: the possibility of the Brexit procedure starting on Tuesday, 14 March and the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates on Thursday, 16 March. These will likely remain unchanged at 0.25%;

- Also the interest rate for the Japanese yen will be known on 16 March. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are divided exactly in halfway: 50% believe in pair's growth and 50% in its fall. Technical analysis, however, demonstrates rare unanimity: almost 100% of trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis expect the growth of USD/JPY. If their forecast is correct, starting from the support of 114.75, the pair still has to reach the height of 117.00-117.20. An alternative point of view suggests that the level of 114.75 is the upper border of the eight-week long side channel and the resistance that the pair will not be able to overcome. Thus, it will descend - first to the support 112.60 and then 100 points lower, reaching the bottom at the lower boundary of the channel;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 80% of analysts and trend indicators on D1 believe that the downwards rebound of the pair was temporary and that it will once again strive upwards to 1.0210. In the event that there is a break through the channel's lower border, the pair will likely fall to the 0.9966-1.0010 zone. However, in the medium term, it is still expected to grow: more than 70% of the experts name the 1.0330 highs of last December as the goal.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for March 20 - 24, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The first part of the forecast for EUR/USD talked about the fall of the pair to 1.0600, which ended up happening by Tuesday evening. The fate of its future, as had been expected, was determined by the plethora of news from the USA on March 15. The Fed's decision on the interest rate, J. Yellen's press conference, and President D. Trump’s speech deployed the pair northward, as a result of which it approached December 2016-January 2017 highs in the 1.0775-1.0830 zone;

- Giving a forecast for GBP/USD, 60% of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, sided with the bulls. They considered that the pair had already reached the local bottom and was now awaiting a rebound upwards to the resistance of 1.2300, and beyond to 1.2385. The forecast proved 100% correct, with the pair completing the week at 1.2400;

- USD/JPY. Here, the opinions of analysts were divided exactly halfway - 50% were in favour of the growth of the pair and 50% were for its fall. The argument of the latter was that 114.75 constituted the upper boundary of the eight-week lateral channel and was impenetrable as a resistance level, as a result of which the pair would have to go down to the support at 112.60. This scenario occurred with 100% accuracy.

- As for USD/CHF, despite the bullish mood of most experts, the forecast foresaw the possibility of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the six-week upward channel, which was what happened due to the decision, forecasts and comments of the US Federal Reserve. In the event of such a development, it had been assumed that the pair would find its local minimum at 0.9966. It was in this zone that the pair ended up completing the weekly session.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Although 15% of oscillators on D1 indicate the EUR/USD is overbought, the overwhelming majority of indicators points strictly northwards. Analysts' opinions are divided almost equally, 40% support the growth of the pair, 40% its fall, and 20% foresee a sideways trend. Graphical analysis on D1 offers the compromise view. According to this, the pair will be moving in the 1.0640 - 1.0850 channel in the near future. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 also spells out a strong support level at the horizon of 1.0700. When it comes to the medium-term forecast, 70% of experts expect the pair to fall to February lows in the 1.0500 zone, and possibly 150 below that;

- In contrast to the previous pair, almost 30% of the oscillators on both H4 and D1 indicate that GBP/USD is overbought. This bearish stance is supported by about 65% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair has reached the local maximum and they now expect it to decline to 1.2100. An alternative scenario is possible in case of breakthrough of resistance 1.2400. In this case, the pair will begin a lateral movement in the 1.2385-1.2570 range. At the same time, 10% of analysts believe that it may even rise to 1.2700;

- USD/JPY is now close to the strong medium-term support level of 112.60. That is why the majority (60%) of experts expect its rebound to the upper boundary of the side channel of 2017 in the area of 115.00. However, graphical analysis warns that before the start of the rise the bears may take over for a certain period. Because of that, the pair would fall to the February-March lows of around 111.60;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, apparently, its fall last week made a strong impression on the experts. 70% of them expect it to continue plummeting to at least the support at 0.9870-0.9900. However, afterwards, according to the overwhelming majority of these experts, the pair will resume an uptrend and rush back upwards to 1.0330.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 27 - 31 March 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Speaking of the EUR/USD last week, analysts were not able to give a clear forecast. Indeed, the pair behaved quite sluggishly, and neither the meeting of the ECB, nor the speech of the Head of the Fed, nor even the Trump administration’s landmark vote in the US Congress on the healthcare reform and repeal of Obamacare, could make it more dynamic. The pair's volatility kept within 100 points. As it turned out, the most accurate forecast was given by graphic analysis, denoting a strong support at the 1.0700 horizon (in reality, the pair dropped to 1.0720) and the 1.0850 resistance (in reality, there followed a rise to 1.0824);

- Regarding the forecast for GBP/USD, the alternative scenario occurred, supported by 35% of the experts. As they expected, the pair continued the upward trend and climbed up to 1.2530, and came close to the highs of this February;

- USD/JPY. Here, graphical analysis, along with 40% of analysts, expected a fall of the pair to the lows of February-March in the area of 111.60. However, the bears’ striving towards the south was so strong that they were able to break through this support and push down the pair by another 100 points. After that the bears ran out of strength, and the pair passed into the sideways trend within the range 110.62-111.57;

- Evaluating the future of the pair USD/CHF, most experts agreed that it would continue to decline to the area of 0.9870-0.9900, and this forecast was correct by 100%. On Wednesday 22nd March the pair reached the local bottom at 0.9880, and completed the week-long session at around 0.9911.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At the end of last week, the pair almost reached the upper border of the corridor, which was launched back in November 2016. That is why most experts (60%), supported by graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, believes that a further growth of the pair, although possible, but will be negligible, and, having reached the 1.0850-1.0900 area, it is sure to make a U-turn towards the south. According to the remaining 40% of analysts, the bulls have run out of strength and in the next week the pair is expected to decrease first to the level of 1.0650, and then even lower - to the support of 1.0520;

- A similar forecast can be made for the GBP/USD. It is possible that for some time the pair may stay in the range of 1.2420-1.2570, but then, according to 85% of analysts, it will fall to the March lows in the 1.2100-1.2200 area. One should bear in mind that on Wednesday March 29th the British government is expected to launch the Brexit process and the reaction of major players in the market at that point in time could produce some surprises to traders;

- When forecasting the future of USD/JPY, indicators, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the downward trend to continue and for the pair to go down to the 108.00-109.00 zone. As for the experts, their opinions are divided equally – half support the fall, while half support the growth of the pair. If we take a look at the medium-term forecast, supporters of the movement to the north prevail significantly - about 75% of analysts vote for the pair's return to the upper boundary of the 2017 sideways channel at the height of 115.00-115.50;

- As for the USD/CHF pair, both experts and graphical analysis expect that it will continue to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD. Thus, it is not excluded to temporarily go down to the 0.9860-0.9880 zone with a subsequent rise in an attempt to reach a height of 1.0330. About 70% of analysts voted for such a scenario.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets – they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 - 07 April 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The forecast for EUR/USD proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that the main scenario we laid out was the following: the pair’s continued growth was seen to be entirely possible albeit negligible in magnitude. Once it reached the 1.0850-1.0900 area, it would U-turn to southwards. We named 1.0650 as the nearest support. Everything occurred exactly as described: reaching the height of 1.0905 as early as Monday, the pair turned sharply and flying with a little breather 255 points, finished the week at the mark specified by experts - 1.0650;

- In the forecast for GBP/USD, analysts pointed out that the pair may stay in the 1.2420-1.2570 channel for a while. In fact, the borders of this channel ended up being 45 points wider: within a couple of weeks, the pair ranged from the minimum of 1.2375 to 1.2615 at the maximum, ending the session near a strong medium-term level of resistance in the 1.2550-1.2570 zone;

- Giving the forecast for USD/JPY, half of the experts supported the pair’s fall, and the other half its growth. That was exactly what happened. Having broken the strong support at 111.60 two weeks ago, the pair sank to 110.10 last week. It then turned around and returned to the very same support level, which now put a different hat on and became a resistance level;

- Assessing the behaviour of the pair USD/CHF last week, experts agreed that it would once again mirror the graph of the EUR/USD fluctuations. Once again, they were right: dropping to 0.9813 on Monday, the pair then turned and, having overcome 217 points, reached the height of 1.0030 on Friday.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. More than 80% of experts vote for the pair displaying a downwards trend, indicating the 1.0600 support as the nearest target. After that, the pair is likely to descend to 1.0525, and then even lower to the lows of February and March around 1.0495. At the same time, about one third of oscillators indicate that the pair is oversold. Connected with this there might be a temporary correction and an upwards rebound of the pair to the 1.0750-1.0775 zone. This is confirmed by the readings of graphic analysis on H4. The existence of negative expectations for the US dollar is also associated with changes in the United States employment rates(NFP), the data for which will be announced on Friday, 7 April. Thus, according to some forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector could diminish from 235K to 175K;

- Whilst the opinions of analysts and technical analysis on the previous pair mostly coincide, their discrepancy is jarring when it comes to GBP/USD: more than 90% of indicators point to the growth of the pair, whilst over 80% of experts continue to insist on its fall. The trends for this pair will most likely be determined by rumours about the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU for a quite some time. The support levels for next week are 1.2375, 1.2200 and 1.2110, whilst the resistance levels are 1.2675 and 1.2725;

- Predicting the future of USD/JPY, both trend indicators and oscillators alongside with graphical analysis on D1 point to the pair’s lateral movement in the 110.10-112.75 channel. Analysts, however, display a steady rise in bullishness amongst their ranks: at the time of writing the forecast the proportion of bull supporters has already exceeded 70%. 113.55 and 115.20 are named as the main targets;

- Supporters of the growth of USD/CHF now also exceed 70% of analysts: they name 1.0100 as the short-term target, with the next one being 1.0170. As for graphical analysis, its readings on H4 show that the nearest support level is 0.9980, followed by 0.9950, and that the week’s bottom-point is in the 0.9920 area.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 - 14 April 2017

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been fulfilled if not by 100, then by 90 percent for all four pairs:

- Regarding the forecast for EUR/USD, it proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that over 80% of experts voted for the downward trend for this pair, indicating the 1.0600 support as a target. This was reached by the end of the week. However, we had also voiced some negative sentiment concerning the dollar in connection with the fall in US employment numbers (NFP). This also materialised, but the bullish force in this case was only enough to lift the pair to 1.0666. A minute later, it returned to the general trend and continued to fall;

- As for the forecast for GBP/USD, the analysts once again turned out to be right. 80% of them insisted on its fall, indicating 1.2375 as the nearest support level. The pair ended last week’s session next to precisely this level;

- Predicting the future of USD/ PY, trend indicators, oscillators, and graphical analysis all indicated the lateral movement of this pair in the 110.10-112.75 channel. This prediction also came true, with a small correction caused by the fact that the oscillation range was slightly smaller than expected, being 110.12-111.58;

- The proportion of supporters of USD/CHF growth among experts exceeded 70%, and 1.0100 was named as a target. Indeed, the pair started rushing up since mid-Monday. By Friday evening it conquered the height of 1.0096, short of the cherished mark by just 4 points.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of supporters of the idea that the pair can rebound from the horizon 1.0600 is growing, and 40% of experts already believe that it should at least temporarily rise to 1.0750. This version is supported both by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, and by oscillators, about half of which indicate on H4 that the pair is oversold. As for the medium-term forecast, over 75% of analysts look southwards awaiting the pair to drop to the 1.0400-1.0500 zone, and perhaps even lower;

- Assessing the prospects of GBP/USD, more than 70% of experts sided with the bears. Both indicators and graphical analysis agree with this point of view, naming 1.2330 as the nearest support level. The next support level is in the 1.2240 zone. It should be noted that the pair is currently in a zone with rather strong medium-term support, which also comprises the Pivot level for the side channel 1.1980-1.2730, which was laid out last October. Thus, we cannot exclude its rebound to the 1.2450-1.2500 area.

- If last week 70% of analysts spoke of the growth of USD/JPY, their number has now increased to 90%. The targets remain identical: 112.00 and 113.55. However, the pair will be able to reach these targets only at the end of April or in early May. As for the immediate future, everybody — experts, graphic analysis and indicators — expects the pair to retest the local bottom at 110.00;

- Elation continues to reign in the camp of USD/CHF growth supporters, which currently includes approximately 75% of experts. The next targets after the pair reaches the 1.0100 mark are identified as 1.0170 and 1.0215. An alternative point of view is voiced by about a quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. According to them, the pair will continue to move downwards in the medium channel (clearly visible on D1 and W1, started in December 2016) and will shortly start striving towards its centre line in the 0.9950 vicinity.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI