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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  Stan NordFX on Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:06 am

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 02-06, 2018



First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be almost 100% correct. Recall that we spoke of a slight increase to 1.1725-1.1750 (and the pair actually climbed to 1.1720), as well as its possible drop and another attempt to test the level of 1.1500 (on Thursday the pair dropped to the horizon 1.1525). In the end, while maintaining the balance between bulls and bears, it returned to the Pivot Point zone for the last one and a half months and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1680;

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the votes from the Bank of England, a positive mood prevailed in the analysts' camp last week - 65% of them expected a pair to rise above 1.3350. However, those 35% of experts who believed that all hawkish statements of the regulator were nothing more than an attempt to support the rate of the British pound, which had lost more than 1,000 points since April, turned out to be right. According to their forecasts, the pair was to fall into the zone of 1.3000-1.3100. That's exactly what happened: the local bottom was found exactly in the middle of the zone, after which the GBP/USD returned to 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Once again, the oscillators turned out to be right - 15% of them pointed it was oversold, and that was enough for the pair to go up. At the same time, it stayed within the rather narrow monthly lateral channel 109.20-110.90, which confirmed the consolidation of the pair in the 110.10 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for BTC/USD said that if the pair confidently passes support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, with a high probability, after a while it will be seen near the horizon $4,300. And it was on June 28, that the bears decidedly went for a breakthrough. It seemed that the collapse was imminent, but when it reached $5,790, the pair first froze, and then jerked up on June 30, reaching a height of $6,525. As a result, over a day, bitcoin has grown by more than 10%, the reason for which was the mysterious large-scale purchase of BTC by an unknown investor, which occurred after the CME futures closed.
Many altcoins went into the growth. following bitcoin. The highest growth was demonstrated by Bitcoin Cash + 13% and Litecoin + 11%. The average growth of the top twenty cryptos was 7-10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Last week, the short-term growth of the EUR/USD was caused by the results of the EU summit and the agreement on migration issues reached. However, in the near future it is hardly possible to have a release of new economic data, which would push the pair EUR/USD further up. The publication of the data on the labor market in the United States (NFP) on Friday July 07 is of particular interest, but the information on the possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy may be on the other side of the scale. As a result, according to 35% of experts, the pair will be able to stay in the side corridor 1.1500-1.1725.
At the same time, it is possible that it will still be able to break the upper boundary of this channel and rise to zone 1.1725-1.1825. This version is supported by 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4
The remaining 45% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought, believe that it will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop by 100-150 points lower;

- A similar picture is drawn by graphical analysis for the GBP/USD as well: on H4, a rise to the level of 1.3300-1.3335, and a fall into the zone 1.2900-1.3100 on D1. 15% of the oscillators also agree with the latter scenario.
As for the experts' opinion, they are divided almost equally: 35% support the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% favor the sideways trend.
We can assume from all of the above, that the pair will continue to move east along the horizon 1.3200, fluctuating in the range 1.3050-1.3325.
If we talk about a medium-term forecast, 65% of analysts have supported the growth of the pair to 1.3450-1.3615 zone, and only 35% have voted for its fall below the level of 1.3000. In the event that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, directly or indirectly confirms the "hawkish" statements of his colleague Andy Haldane in his speech on Thursday, July 05, the pair's jump may be expected as early as this week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that it is already 10% of oscillators on H4 and D1 that give signals that the pair is overbought, most experts (55%) still expect the pair to grow at least to the 111.45 horizon. And it is only after that, in their opinion, it can return to the support of 110.00. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, it warns that, if this level is broken through, the pair can very quickly drop another 100 points lower;

- Cryptocurrencies. Seeing the latest jerk up of the bitcoin, the crypto world wondered: what was this? The long-awaited turn of the trend and the fulfillment of John McAfee's prophecy that bitcoin will cost $1 million per coin by 2020? Or just another trap? And, maybe, the IMF's Kenneth Rogoff was right, when he said that by the end of the year the rate of this forefather of virtual currencies will fall to some miserable $100?
Perhaps the answer to this question remains to be seen soon. For now, as the ancient Greek sage Skelef said, everyone sees what he wants. Analysts who are optimists say that if bitcoin confidently overcomes the level of $ 6,700, it will be a strong enough positive signal for the trend to change. As for the pessimists, we see the last breath of a dying coin. And if the pair BTC/USD is fixed below the horizon of $5,900, it is highly likely that after a while it will be possible to be seen about $4,300, and then even lower.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  Stan NordFX on Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:12 am

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 09-13, 2018



First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecasts of the majority of experts (55%) included the level of 1.1725, which the pair must have achieved this week. And this was what happened. Positive economic data from Germany as well as not the rosiest statistics from the labor market in the US (NFP declined by 12.7%), and the once again inflaming trade war between the US and China side with the Euro. As a result, the pair gradually, step by step, reached the height of 1.1765. Then a small correction followed, and it completed the trading session at the level of 1.1745;

- GBP/USD. Summarizing rather contradictory opinions of analysts and indicators, we assumed that the pair would continue to move to the east along the horizon 1.3200, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3325. And, judging by the graph, this forecast turned out to be correct. Starting from 1.3200 mark on Monday night, the pair first fell to the level of 1.3093, then turned and went up, rising to the height of 1.3285.
The pound was once again supported by "hawkish" statements coming from the Bank of England, and the prospect of the interest rate raising. The growth of activity in the service sector of Great Britain also added optimism for the players;

- USD/JPY. The scale that determines the quotes of this pair, on the one hand has the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, and on the other - the trade wars raging on the continents, as a result of which more and more investors choose the currency of this island state as a refuge.
Proceeding from this, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expected the continuation of fluctuations in quotations and the struggle between bulls and bears. According to their forecast, the pair had first to rise to the horizon of 111.45 (it grew to 111.15), and then go down to support 110.00 (in fact it reached the level of 110.27). Then another cycle of fluctuations followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 110.46, confirming its strive for consolidation in zone 110.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the jump on June 30, the pair BTC/USD continued to grow and managed to even reach $6,780, after which it rolled back down. Recall that the optimistic forecast for the past week said that if bitcoin confidently overcame the level of $6,700, it would be a strong enough signal to the long-awaited trend change. However, despite a significant growth, there has been no real breakthrough of this resistance, and the level of $6,600 can be considered as the Pivot Point of the last days.
Following the bitcoin, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) showed a certain growth, although the level of $485 can be considered the upper limit of a two-month down channel. And, in case of a rebound from it, the pair can fall to the price of 360 dollars per coin.
As for the Litecoin (LTC/USD) and the Ripple (XRP/USD), they moved into a sideways trend, ending the week in the same place where it started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the growth of the EUR/USD may continue, but it will be a small one. The level 1.1800 is named as the main resistance. The next resistance is 50 points higher. Next, during July, the pair again expects a decline to the support of 1.1500 and another attempt to break through it.15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this development of events, giving signals that the pair is overbought.
No "revolutionary" news is expected next week. However, we should pay attention to Thursday July 12. On this day data on the growth rates of industrial production in the Eurozone will be published, as well as statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. According to analysts, the rate of inflation in the US over the past month has accelerated, which could push the Fed to another interest rate hike and, as a result, render additional support to the dollar;

- For the pair GBP/USD the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 draws a rebound from support 1.3225, growth to the 1.3400 zone and the subsequent sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000. As for the experts, in the current situation they are waiting for news from the UK.
Thus, on Tuesday July 10 data on the growth rates of industrial production for May will be published, and if it turns out that the April recession is completely overcome, the pound may rise above the 1.3300 mark.
Another speech by the head of the Bank of England may provide support for the British currency on Wednesday July 11, if Mark Carney again talks about the forthcoming tightening of the monetary policy.
The government of Great Britain can play against the pound. In the near future, it must submit its draft agreement on Brexit to the EU, and if it does not contain any important aspects for the economy of the country, the pound may again be under serious pressure;

- USD/JPY. The trade war between the US and China is again in full swing. On July 6, the duties on imported Chinese goods mounting to 25% entered into force. Washington is expected to increase sanctions by another $200 billion, to which China threatens to respond by selling off US treasury securities.
Against this background, as already mentioned, there is a growing demand for the yen, as a safe shelter currency. The pair USD/JPY rose by about 6.7% over the past four months. As for the upcoming week, most analysts (60%) expect the continuation of its growth to the level of 111.40. The remaining 40% believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement and will be held in channel 109.35-110.80. The next support is at the level of 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. The major question for the near future is whether the bitcoin continues its growth or rolls back. At present, it is clearly aiming at overcoming the $7,000 mark, and buyers are not leaving the market yet. However, even now indicators show that this cryptocurrency is overbought, and, in case of any negative news, the trend can very quickly turn from bullish to bearish, returning the pair to the June lows.
On the other hand, a number of experts predict the continuation of the growth of the BTC/USD, naming as one of the numerous reasons the comeback of many investors disappointed in altcoins to this cryptocurrency, the long absence of bad news, and, paradoxically, the low volume of trading. The latter means that the desperate have already left the ship, and those who wish to sell these coins are extremely few. There remain only those who, no matter what, are ready to keep the bitcoin either till the full victory or the complete collapse. That is why the optimists keep saying that by the end of the year BTC will cost at least $50,000 (Arthur Hayes, BitMEX), or at least $25,000 (Tom Lee, FundStrat).


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  Stan NordFX on Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:49 am

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 16-20, 2018



First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be absolutely correct. Recall that it assumed first a small growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1800 (in reality, it rose to the height of 1.1790), and then a fall (it fell to the level of 1.1620). After that, a rebound followed, and the pair completed the trading session in a strong support/resistance zone 1.1685;

- GBP/USD. Despite the fact that the volatility was somewhat less than expected, the main trends for this pair were fairly accurately pointed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to its scenario, the pair was expected to grow to the 1.3400 zone (it rose to 1.3360), and then a sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000 was expected (it fell to the level of 1.3100).
As expected, another blow to the pound was caused by the government of Great Britain. Last week, key Brexit ministers resigned - Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Secretary for Brexit David Davis, which put an extra pressure on the pound;

- USD/JPY. Despite the trade war between the US and China and the growing demand for the yen as a safe haven, the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan still plays against the currency of this island nation. The main blow to the yen was caused by the rapid growth of Asian stocks and, accordingly, the indices Nikkei and MSCI Asia Pacific. As a result, it fell against all G-10 currencies and lost more than 240 points against the US dollar.
At the end of the five-day period, the traditional correction followed, and the pair froze at 112.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. We warned that in the event of any negative news, the ascending trend of bitcoin could very quickly turn from bullish into bearish, leading the pair to June lows. It was said multiple times that in fact all this news is only a virtual excuse, using which large speculators start moving virtual currencies up or down. How, for example, could the theft from the Swiss platform Bancor "some" $23.5 million ($13.5 million according to other sources) affect the sinking of the whole market? No way it could, but as a result, bitcoin collapsed by almost 11%, dragging along all the main altcoins as well.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Oscillators on both H4 and D1 are in complete disarray as to the future of this pair - about a third of them are green, one third are red and one third are neutral gray. As for analysts, 80% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue its movement to the horizon 1.1500. Nearest supports are at the levels of 1.1625, 1.1590 and 1.1550.
The upcoming meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia on Monday, July 16 may strengthen the dollar. Experts do not expect any significant breakthrough from this meeting, but if both leaders express certain optimism on its results, this can play into the hands of the American currency.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair can once again test the level of 1.1790 and, if successful, rise to resistance 1.1830;

- GBP / USD. The resignation of the two main Brexit negotiators means that British Prime Minister Teresa May chose a soft option for her country to leave the EU. And if she keeps her post, this can strengthen the position of the pound in the future. However, right now the market is negative and most analysts (70%) predict the continuation of the fall of the pair GBP/USD first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower.
10% of oscillators agree with this forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought, as well as graphical analysis on D1. At the same time, the latter points out that the pair can move in the side corridor in the range 1.3 190-1.3285 for a while;

- Also, 70% of experts expect strengthening of the dollar to the Japanese yen as well. In their opinion, the pair USD/JPY will seek to reach the highs of last December in the zone of 113.50. The next goal for it is the last November high. - 114.75.
The graphical analysis on H4 also agrees with this development of events. But on D1, it draws an opposite picture - the fall into the zone 110.25-111.15, and then even lower - to support 109.35.
It should be noted that even now a number of analysts are calling for being very cautious with the dollar, as this currency, according to their forecasts, has already approached the overbought state;

- Cryptocurrencies. We listed the factors that could positively affect the growth of the pair BTC / USD, in the previous forecast. Now, a couple of words about the negative side.
In fact, it was quite simple to predict the drop of bitcoin last week - it is enough to connect the points A, B, C and D on the chart to see the attenuation of the rising trend. Now the capitalization of the market is again near the 2018 lows and is about $240 billion. If such drying continues, according to some experts, the process can acquire the character of a collapse. As a result, the bitcoin will be around $3000, and the total market capitalization will not exceed half of the current market capitalization.
Meanwhile, the pair BTC/USD is trading roughly midway between the June lows ($5,790) and the July highs ($6,830) and, if nothing extraordinary happens, it will likely stay in this corridor for a few more weeks.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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